Raleigh, N.C. – PPP has polled Virginia four times in 2011 and has come to the same conclusion every time: Barack Obama just hasn’t slipped there to the extent he has nationally. That’s a finding with major, major implications for his reelection prospects because if he wins Virginia he’s probably going to win the Electoral College…and our polling in the state over the course of the year has certainly suggested he’s in a good position to do it.
Right now we find Obama on positive ground in the state with 48% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove. He won Virginia by 6 points against John McCain so his net approval of +1 basically suggests a 5 point decline for him from his 2008 standing. To put that in context he won the national popular vote by 7 points and our national poll this week put his approval at a -10 spread (42/52), for a 17 point decline nationally. His numbers are holding up much better in Virginia than most anywhere else.
Obama leads both Mitt Romney (48-42) and Newt Gingrich (50-43) by margins comparable to his 6 point victory over John McCain in 2008. He leads both of them with independents- Romney by 4 and Gingrich by 8. And between the two match ups he’s picking up as many Republicans as he’s losing Democrats, again something we just aren’t seeing in very many places.
What should be particularly heartening for Obama is that this is hardly an isolated finding in our Virginia polling this year. Over the course of 4 polls where we tested a match up with Romney Obama has led by an average of 7 points. And over the course of 3 polls where Gingrich was included Obama has led by an average of 12 points, although it is worth noting that he’s doing better now as he’s surged ahead in the Republican race.
“It continues to look like Virginia may be Obama’s firewall state,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s holding up well there and it’s going to be tough for the Republicans to get to 270 electoral votes without it in their column.”
PPP surveyed 600 Virginia voters from December 11th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
