Raleigh, N.C. – Obama is in a decent position to once again win the key swing state of Florida. Obama leads all potential Republican opponents by a greater margin than his 51-48 victory over John McCain in 2008. Obama leads Mitt Romney by the narrow margin of 47-43 (up from 46-44 in March). Obama achieves larger margins against all others leading Tim Pawlenty 48-40, Michele Bachmann 49-40, Herman Cain 48-37, and Sarah Palin 52-40 (52-39 in March).
Obama leads despite only tepid approval among Florida voters. Only 48% of Floridians approve of Obama while 49% disapprove. As is true across the country, the unpopularity of the GOP candidates makes up for Obama’s weak numbers. Bachmann, perhaps boosted by favorable coverage from her last debate, is the most popular Republican candidate, breaking close to even with a 36-37 favorability rating. She is followed by Romney at 41-45, Cain at 25-33, Pawlenty at 19-39, and Palin at 37-58.
Marco Rubio starts his term off with a decent approval rating; 42% of Florida voters approve while 35% disapprove. With Rubio’s solid numbers and position in a key swing state, the eventual Republican nominee may be tempted to add him to the ticket. This is unlikely to be a big help in Florida though. Only 31% of voters say Rubio as VP would make them more likely to support the GOP, while 35% say it would make them less likely, and 34% say it would make no difference. Worse for the GOP, the tenure of Governor Rick Scott appears to be an unambiguous problem for their chances. 26% of Floridians say Rick Scott has made them more likely to support the GOP, while 40% say it makes them less likely to and 34% claim it makes no difference.
“Florida’s pretty emblematic of Barack Obama’s current postion,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters there aren’t in love with him but when they look at the Republican alternatives and they look at what Rick Scott’s done while in office as Governor he starts to not look so bad.”
PPP surveyed 848 Florida voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Have Rick Scott’s actions as Governor made it
more or less likely that you’ll vote for a
Republican for President next year, or has it
not made a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 26%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 40%
Hasn’t made a difference ………………………….. 34%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q14 If Marco Rubio was the Republican candidate
for Vice President next year, would that make
you more or less likely to vote for the
Republican Presidential nominee, or would it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 31%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 35%
Hasn’t made a difference ………………………….. 34%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
