Raleigh, N.C. – The political landscape in Missouri is in stasis. Last week, PPP found vulnerable freshman Senator Claire McCaskill at about the same fifty-fifty standing as in the previous poll in March. Now, in the state that featured the closest presidential contest in 2008, with John McCain winning in a photo finish, President Obama is at almost exactly the same position against his potential 2012 opponents as two months ago—slightly up on a few and slightly behind the two leading contenders.
43% approve and 53% disapprove of the president’s job performance, almost indentical to March’s 43-52 split. As such, he trails Mike Huckabee, 44-49 (43-49 in March), and Mitt Romney, 43-45 (43-44). He leads Newt Gingrich, 46-44 (44-44); Sarah Palin, 48-43 (same); and Donald Trump, tested for the first time, 46-41. Other than Huckabee’s 43-38 favorability rating, all the Republicans are disliked even more than the president is: Romney at 31-45, Gingrich 29-50, Palin 33-56, and Trump 24-65.
Obama is still losing double-digit percentages of Democrats, as against McCain, but he at least narrowly leads with independents, whom McCain barely won in 2008.
Keeping the president further behind Huckabee and Romney than against McCain is that Missouri has yet to recover as much as other states from 2010’s hyper-Republican turnout. The poll’s respondents report having voted for McCain over Obama by five points, suggesting that Republican voters continue to be more engaged than Democrats, as was the case last year. The state seems to be trending redder, but if the electorate moves more toward 2008’s composition, the result next year could be just as close as it was last time.
“Barack Obama continues to be very unpopular in Missouri,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He may have a better chance in Arizona and Georgia next year even though he didn’t do as well in 2008 in those states as he did in Missouri.”
PPP surveyed 555 Missouri voters from April 28th to May 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
