Raleigh, N.C. – There has been very little movement in either the presidential or Senate races in Washington since PPP last polled the state in February.
President Obama’s approval rating has not budged an inch. 51% approved and 45% disapproved in both of the most recent surveys. The inconsequential two-point shift from a 15-point lead (53-38) to a 13-point lead (54-41) has occurred entirely because Romney has consolidated his Republican base. He led with GOP voters by only a 78-12 margin four months ago, but he has now locked up almost as much of his party as Obama has his. Obama has 95% of Democrats, and Romney 93% of Republicans.
The flip side keeping it a double-digit lead for the president is that he has only boosted his favor with independents, who are more than a third of voters in the state, equal to Democrats’ share of the electorate. Obama leads Romney by 16 points with them now, up from only seven in February.
“It’s looking a lot more like 2008 than 2000 or 2004 in Washington,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s unlikely that the state will be competitive this fall.”
Similarly, Maria Cantwell is looking very strong for re-election to the Senate. Even though her likely opponent Michael Baumgartner has upped his name recognition a few points in the last few months, he is still an unknown; 72% of voters are unfamiliar with him. As such, Cantwell has maintained her lead—it was 51-36 in February, and 51-35 now.
Cantwell has 91% of Democrats to Baumgartner’s 81% of the GOP, and the incumbent leads by 13 with independents. Baumgartner has more room to grow, with slightly more of his party undecided than Cantwell’s and about nine points of potential voters just from undecided independents. But Cantwell is already over 50%.
PPP surveyed 1,073 Washington voters from June 14th to 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Maria Cantwell’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Baumgartner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Maria Cantwell and Republican
Michael Baumgartner, who would you vote for?
Maria Cantwell ………………………………………… 51%
Michael Baumgartner……………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Christine Gregoire’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 40%
Disapprove………… 52%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Patty
Murray’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .49%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 38%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 12%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 36%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 86%
Other……………………………………………………… 14%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
