Polls

Obama boosts leads over Republicans nationally

| Tom Jensen

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Obama_vs_gop_0311 Raleigh, N.C. –
Despite his approval rating falling back to even (47% both approving and disapproving, down slightly from 49-46 last month), President Obama has put a little more distance between himself and three of his potential Republican opponents in the race for the national popular vote since PPP’s February poll.  He now leads the four usual frontrunners by five to 15 points and two little-known dark horses also by double digits.

Both Mike Huckabee (48-43) and Mitt Romney (47-42) trail the president by five points.  That is an identical margin as last month’s results for Romney, but Huckabee was then down by only three.  Trailing by nine last month, Newt Gingrich is now behind 11 (50-39).  And, as ever, bringing up the rear among the usual suspects, Sarah Palin has increased her deficit back to 15 points (53-38) after lagging by 12 in February.  PPP also tested likely contender Tim Pawlenty, who trails by 14 (47-33), and possible GOP primary entrant Herman Cain, who loses by 18 (47-29).

It is no surprise neither Cain nor Pawlenty fare well.  Only 48% are aware of Pawlenty, and 38% of Cain.  Of those who do have an opinion of Pawlenty, 15% are favorable and 33% unfavorable, about par for the course with the other candidates, all of whom are known entities to at least three-quarters of American voters but are, as ever, in negative territory.  Huckabee is best off, at a net -7 favorability rating, followed by Romney’s -12, Pawlenty’s -18, Cain’s -20 (9-29), Palin’s -22, and Gingrich’s -31.

The president has improved since last month with independents, leading the Republicans by eight (against Romney) to 28 points (versus Palin).  Palin does worse than the far less-known Cain and Pawlenty do with these unaffiliated voters.  Though he continues to lose double-digit percentages of his own party to the leading Republicans, Obama also takes 9-13% of Republicans.  The Republicans’ only saving grace is that far more Republicans and independents remain undecided than Democrats, who the president has locked up.

“Obama’s numbers continue to tell the same story,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “Voters aren’t all that enamored with him right now but when they look at him and then they look at the Republican alternatives he comes out looking pretty good.”

PPP surveyed 642 American voters from March 10th to 13th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%

Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%

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