Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama had little chance in Arizona last time around, with popular hometown hero John McCain heading the GOP ballot line. So his campaign barely contested it. But despite that, Obama ended up losing by fewer than nine points, a closer result than in 2004. Except 1996, the Grand Canyon State has gone Republican in every election since 1952. But with the McCain advantage removed, it could enter the list of presidential swing states in 2012 and join its Southwestern neighbors Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada as states that are increasingly trending blue as the Latino, Northeastern, and Midwestern immigrant populations grow. The president beats Sarah Palin here by eight points and trails the others by no more than six.
Obama tops McCain’s running mate with a near majority, 49-41, and he ties Newt Gingrich at 46%. But he lags Mike Huckabee, 44-48, and Mitt Romney, 43-49.
With respective 44-35 and 44-38 favorability margins, both Huckabee and Romney are far better liked than either Gingirch (34-48) or Palin (39-57). They also best Obama’s job performance mark, which nevertheless has rebounded from a dismal 36-58 just before the 2010 election to 45-51 now, putting his standing here in the top half of the 41 states in which PPP has measured him in the last year.
Romney just barely outperforms Huckabee against the president because he is the only Republican to tie him with independents. Against Huckabee, Obama wins unaffiliated voters 47-40, to go with a whopping 53-38 lead over Gingrich and 57-31 over Palin. Almost a quarter of voters call themselves independent, a larger share of the electorate than in many states. Palin is also the only candidate who cedes more of the GOP to Obama than she takes of Democratic voters.
“If you want a measure of how much Barack Obama’s stock has risen and how much Sarah Palin’s has fallen in the wake of their reactions to the Arizona shooting this is a good one,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama would not only snag a rare Democratic win in Arizona if he got to match up with her, but he would do so by a wide margin.”
PPP surveyed 599 Arizona voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 38%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
