Raleigh, N.C. – Even as President Obama is on shakier ground now than he was in 2008 in states he won easily like Pennsylvania and Nevada, his re-election campaign, rather than retreat and reinforce, is reportedly planning to expand the electoral playing field even further. PPP’s latest poll of the home state of Obama’s 2008 opponent, John McCain, shows that this plan has some merit. McCain beat Obama by over eight points in Arizona, but none of his potential successors comes close to that comfortable margin. The president leads four possible 2012 GOP nominees and narrowly lags another.
Obama trails Mitt Romney, 44-48, but tops Mike Huckabee, 46-44; Newt Gingrich, 47-40; Sarah Palin, 49-38; and Donald Trump, 48-36. In PPP’s January poll, Romney led, 49-43 (a two-point decline), and Huckabee 48-44 (-6). Gingrich tied at 46% (-7), and Palin trailed 41-49 (-3). Trump was not tested. In the intervening months, the president’s approval rating has hardly moved, now a net -4. But all the Republicans but Romney have become less popular, and only Romney is better liked than disliked. Obama has taken huge leads with independents, tying Romney with them in January but leading by 17 points now.
Palin, McCain’s running mate, has talked of basing any White House bid from the Grand Canyon State, but 57% of voters do not want the ex-Alaska governor making the state home, including a third of Republicans and two-thirds of independents.
Other than Bill Clinton’s two-point win over Bob Dole in his healthy 1996 re-election bid, Arizona has gone red in every presidential election from 1952 onward.
“Arizona looks to be one of Barack Obama’s best shots at picking up a state he lost in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The same strong support from Hispanic voters that helped him win Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada could translate to an Arizona victory without John McCain on the ballot next year.”
PPP surveyed 623 Arizona voters from April 28th to May 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 Would you like for Sarah Palin to move to
Arizona or not?
Would like Palin to move to Arizona……………. 27%
Would not like her to ………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
