Polls

Obama and Heller lead in Nevada

| Tom Jensen


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Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest Nevada poll finds Barack Obama’s lead in the state falling to 4
points at 51-47. He had led by a 52-43 margin in the middle of last month. That
five point decline for Obama is consistent with what we’ve been seeing in most
of our national and state level polling since last week’s debate.

Romney’s seen a big improvement in his favorability rating. The last time we
polled on that in August he was at 46/49 in Nevada and now he’s improved a net
7 points to 50/46. The good news for Obama is that his own approval, at 49/48,
is slightly better than it was in August as well when he was at 48/49. Romney’s
climb is more about his own image improving than a decline for Obama.

Romney’s big gain over the last month has been with white voters, who he’s
going from leading 52-45 with to 55-42. He’s made gains across the party
spectrum, notably increasing his crossover support with Democrats from 10% to
16% and cutting Obama’s lead with independents from 15 points down to 7 points.

When Gary Johnson’s included he gets 3% and actually takes mostly from
Obama, pulling his lead over Romney down to 48/47. That could be something
worth keeping an eye on.

“Barack Obama’s still the favorite in Nevada but the state’s looking a lot
more competitive than it did 3 weeks ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “The big question is whether Romney’s momentum will be
enough to overcome the structural advantages Democrats have in the state.”

In the Senate race Dean Heller holds a small lead over Shelley Berkley with
47% to her 44%. Independent American Party candidate David Lory VanderBeek gets
4%. Nevadans give Heller narrowly positive approval numbers, with 44% of voters
happy with the job he’s doing to 42% who disapprove. Berkley’s suffering from
high negatives with just 40% of voters rating her favorably to 51% who have an
unfavorable opinion.

PPP surveyed 594 likely
Nevada voters from October 8th to 10th. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-4.0%  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%

Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%

Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dean
Heller’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .14%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Shelley Berkley, Republican Dean
Heller, and Independent American Party
candidate David Lory VanderBeek. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 44%
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 47%
David Lory VanderBeek ……………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Sandoval’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q12 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican Brian
Sandoval or his Democratic opponent?
Brian Sandoval ……………………………………….. 53%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Harry
Reid’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .51%
Not sure …………….. . 5%

Q14 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q15 Do you think the Bureau of Labor Statistics is
manipulating the unemployment numbers to
help Barack Obama, or not?
It is ………………………………………………………… 44%
It is not …………………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%

Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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