Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama enjoyed a little surge in popularity last month around the country, regaining plurality approval in North Carolina and for the first time leading all four potential Republican opponents tested against him in the Tar Heel State. But in PPP’s latest poll, he has regressed back to even on the approval front, and now posts a hair-thin deficit to Mike Huckabee while still leading Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin in a state he won for his party for the first time in a generation.
Huckabee barely prevails, 47-46, after the president led, 49-45, in January. He has also slipped a little to Gingrich, who is now down only 48-44 (versus 50-43 a month ago). But Obama has stayed steady with the other two, leading Romney 47-44, the same as last month, and topping Palin, 51-41 (again almost exactly like the 50-41 last month). As in most other states, these candidates, already very well-known to voters at this early stage of the cycle, are not even as strong as John McCain was in his blowout 2008 defeat. Only Huckabee bests McCain’s less-than-one-point loss here.
The main shift has occurred with independents. All the Republicans, even Palin, still do a better job of cutting into Obama’s Democratic base than he does theirs. But while Obama led all four with independents previously, he now lags Huckabee, 40-45 (51-40 in January), and Romney, 41-42 (44-39). He can take some solace that his lead with unaffiliated voters over Palin has grown from 48-32 to 54-33, and that he still leads Gingrich by seven with this group.
“North Carolina is going to be one of the key battlegrounds next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama looks a little weaker here than a month ago, but still appears to have a very real chance of repeating his surprise victory in the state from 2008.”
PPP will release new numbers looking at Bev Perdue’s standing in the state tomorrow.
PPP surveyed 650 North Carolina voters from February 16th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Republican
Senator Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic
Senator Kay Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .39%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .23%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q17
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 18%
