Polls

Obama a lock in Oregon

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results

President_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – Once a close swing state, Oregon now appears set to give its 7 electoral votes once again to Barack Obama by a wide margin. Oregon is hardly in love with the sitting president, with only 49% approving and 45% disapproving. Fewer Democrats approve, 80-16, than Republicans disapprove, 11-85 and independents split down the middle 44-45. However, in a familiar pattern, Oregon likes the Republican candidates a lot less and doesn’t hesitate to choose Obama.

Obama won Oregon 56-40 in 2008 and could expand on this margin if the GOP nominates one of its weaker candidates. Obama leads GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney 50-38, Michele Bachmann 53-35, Tim Pawlenty 52-34, Herman Cain 53-32, and Sarah Palin 57-35. Obama holds his base, with 10% or fewer Democrats crossing over in each matchup. On the other hand, Obama’s support among Republicans is always in the double digits and reaches 19% in a matchup with Palin. Obama wins independents handily by double digits against everyone but Mitt Romney for whom independents side with the president by only 5 points.

As Oregonians have gotten to know the prospective Republican candidates, they don’t like what they see. The most popular Republican is Bachmann who garners a 30-40 favorability rating. She is followed by Cain at 19-31, Romney at 31-47, and Pawlenty at 19-37. Without Newt Gingrich, Palin once again takes her place at the bottom with a miserable 31-63 rating. Both Pawlenty and Cain have room to grow as 44% and 50% of voters respectively have not yet formed an opinion of them.

“Oregon joins states like Washington, Wisconsin, and Minnesota that we have polled recently and found looking a lot more like their 2008 Democratic blow outs than their 2000/2004 swing state status,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Not really needing to worry about those states gives Obama the opportunity to try to expand the map again, as he did in his first campaign.”

PPP surveyed 701 Oregon voters from June 19th to 21st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 37%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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