Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama defeated John McCain by ten points in Minnesota, much larger than Al Gore’s and John Kerry’s two- to three-point nailbiters. He has only gotten stronger since then and since PPP last polled the race in December; where he led his prospective challengers by five to 18 points, he now leads by eight to 21.
The president’s approval rating has grown slightly, from 49-46 in December to 51-44 now, and the only candidate who comes closer than McCain did is Minnesota’s own Tim Pawlenty, who lags by the same 51-43 margin as six months ago. Mitt Romney’s deficit has grown 10 points from 47-42 to 51-36, Newt Gingrich’s five points from 51-38 to 54-36, and Sarah Palin’s two points from 54-36 to 56-36. Herman Cain and Minnesotan Michele Bachmann, both tested for the first time, trail by 21 points, 51-30 and 56-35.
Obama earns his highest level of Democratic support, 96%, against Palin, and takes 93-95% against the others, showing similar levels of intraparty support as Amy Klobuchar did in an earlier release. Because the president poaches 7-10% of Republicans’ votes and because a lot of the GOP remains undecided, the challengers maintain only 67-89% of their own base. To top it off, there are just as many independents in the electorate as Republicans.
In an unlikely scenario, were the state’s former independent Governor Jesse Ventura to put his hat in the ring as an independent, his candidacy would have no impact on Obama’s victory margin over Romney. Obama would take 46% to Romney’s 32% and Ventura’s 16%.
“Upper Midwestern states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa that went strongly for Obama in 2008 look like they will again next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “At this point they don’t look like they’ll return to the swing state status they had in 2000 and 2004.”
PPP surveyed 1,179 Minnesota voters from May 27th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 17%
Unfavorable……….. 65%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 30%
Unfavorable……….. 65%
Not sure ……………. 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 29%
Unfavorable……….. 53%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable ………….. 33%
Unfavorable……….. 59%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable ………….. 17%
Unfavorable……….. 35%
Not sure ……………. 48%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable ………….. 40%
Unfavorable……….. 53%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jesse Ventura?
Favorable ………….. 29%
Unfavorable……….. 58%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q14 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q15 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Jesse Ventura, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 32%
Jesse Ventura…………………………………………. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
