Raleigh, N.C. – In the span of only three months, Republicans have turned a four-point advantage in the generic legislative ballot into a five-point deficit. If Tar Heels headed to the polls today, 46% of them would vote for the Democratic General Assembly candidate in their district, and 41% would side with the GOP option. In March, that was 41-45, a nine-point shift. Every month last year, the GOP was down at worst one point, and was most often up by a healthy margin in PPP polls. They ultimately took control of both houses of the G.A. by winning the statewide vote by double digits, including by about 20 with independents. Now, they are up only 32-29 with independents.
Behind that shift: in that same three-month span, Democratic legislators have become more popular by 12 points on the margin, and Republicans less popular by the same amount. The Democrats have become significantly more popular with both Republicans and independents, while Republicans have become less popular across the board, including within their own party. Voters now break even on Democratic lawmakers, 39% seeing them both favorably and unfavorably, while Republicans stand at 33-46.
Voters are also strongly behind Governor Perdue’s executive order last week extending unemployment benefits to the 47,000 state residents whose fates had been held up by the GOP legislature. 60% support her move statewide, including even 54% in Speaker Thom Tillis’ district and 52% in Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger’s district. Berger and Tillis both strongly condemned Perdue on this matter, but their constituents did not.
“If North Carolinians went to the polls today there is a very good chance Democrats would retake control of the Legislature,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Public opinion has moved rapidly against the new GOP majority over the course of this year’s session.”
PPP surveyed 563 North Carolina voters from June 8th to 11th, plus 576 voters in Thom Tillis’ district and 527 voters in Phil Berger’s on June 11th and 12th. The margin of error for the statewide and Tillis polls is +/-4.1%, and +/-4.3% for the Berger poll. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
North Carolina Survey Results:
Q1 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you support or oppose Governor Perdue’s
executive order extending unemployment
benefits to 47,000 North Carolinians?
Support ………………………………………………….. 60%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you think North Carolina colleges should be
able to consider whether potential students
come from an accredited high school when
making admissions decisions or not?
Should……………………………………………………. 46%
Should not………………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 Do you think judicial elections should be
partisan or nonpartisan?
Partisan………………………………………………….. 22%
Nonpartisan ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q7 Do you think guns should or should not be
allowed in locked cars on school property?
Should……………………………………………………. 19%
Should not………………………………………………. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 23%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q13
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 16%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 19%
North Carolina 98th House District Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you support or oppose Governor Perdue’s
executive order extending unemployment
benefits to 47,000 North Carolinians?
Support ………………………………………………….. 54%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you think North Carolina colleges should be
able to consider whether potential students
come from an accredited high school when
making admissions decisions or not?
Should……………………………………………………. 59%
Should not………………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you support or oppose reducing the length
of the early voting period by a week?
Support ………………………………………………….. 39%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you think judicial elections should be
partisan or nonpartisan?
Partisan………………………………………………….. 21%
Nonpartisan ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 Do you think guns should or should not be
allowed in locked cars on school property?
Should……………………………………………………. 19%
Should not………………………………………………. 76%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 16%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
North Carolina 26th Senate District Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Do you support or oppose Governor Perdue’s
executive order extending unemployment
benefits to 47,000 North Carolinians?
Support ………………………………………………….. 52%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you think North Carolina colleges should be
able to consider whether potential students
come from an accredited high school when
making admissions decisions or not?
Should……………………………………………………. 54%
Should not………………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you support or oppose reducing the length
of the early voting period by a week?
Support ………………………………………………….. 40%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you think judicial elections should be
partisan or nonpartisan?
Partisan………………………………………………….. 22%
Nonpartisan ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q7 Do you think guns should or should not be
allowed in locked cars on school property?
Should……………………………………………………. 20%
Should not………………………………………………. 73%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 16%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
