Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s first general election poll of the North Carolina Senate contest continues to find a very competitive race, with both candidates unpopular and many voters leaning toward a third party candidate as a result.
Kay Hagan leads Thom Tillis 38/36 with Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh pulling a surprisingly high 11%. Haugh’s presence in the race has the potential to be a headache for Tillis moving forward if the contest remains this competitive- people planning to vote for him right now say they would support Tillis over Hagan 47/27 if they had to choose between the major party candidates. When you reallocate those folks the race is tied at 41%- usually a 2 point difference like that doesn’t matter but given the closeness of this one it could.
Haugh’s surprising support is likely the function of voters being pretty down on both of the major party candidates. Hagan has a 38/49 approval spread, pretty consistent with where her numbers have been since Republicans began running attack ads on her last fall. Tillis is at a 30/46 favorability spread, including only 51/23 with GOP voters. Despite his outright win last week some folks within his own party continue to be disaffected with him and are leaning toward voting Libertarian at least for now.
In a lot of the US Senate races that are competitive right now the undecided voters are strongly Republican leaning, suggesting that the races could break toward the GOP in the end. That’s not the case here though- undecideds actually voted for Barack Obama by a 55/37 margin in 2012 and are pretty evenly split on his approval right now at 40/42. That makes it likely this race will remain within a couple points one way or the other moving forward.
“For the last six months now it’s looked like this will be one of the closest Senate races in the country,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And the results of the primary didn’t change that- it’s unlikely either of these candidates will be able to end up pulling away by more than a few points. All eyes will be on North Carolina in the battle for control of the Senate.”
PPP surveyed 877 registered voters from May 9th to 11th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Kay Hagan, Republican Thom Tillis, and
Libertarian Sean Haugh. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 38%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 36%
Sean Haugh……………………………………………. 11%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Horse Race with Waugh supporters asked
whether they would lean to Hagan or Tillis
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 41%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Robin Hudson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eric Levinson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q8 The candidates for one North Carolina
Supreme Court seat this fall are Robin Hudson
and Eric Levinson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Robin Hudson …………………………………………. 28%
Eric Levinson ………………………………………….. 17%
Undecided………………………………………………. 54%
Q9 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 55%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Do you believe that climate change is a fact?
Yes………………………………………………………… 54%
No …………………………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 Do you think the U.S. Education Department
should be eliminated, or not?
Think it should be…………………………………….. 30%
Think it should not……………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 4%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 23%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q18 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Q19 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 15%
704………………………………………………………… 17%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 15%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
