Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s monthly look at the North Carolina Senate race finds Thom Tillis continuing to have difficulty breaking away from the pack in a way that would let him avoid a runoff in the Republican Senate primary. Tillis is polling at 20%, followed by Greg Brannon and Heather Grant at 13%, Ted Alexander at 10%, Mark Harris at 8%, and Edward Kryn at 2%. Tillis is only receiving support right now from about 30% of the voters who have made up their minds, which would place him well below the 40% mark needed to win the primary outright.

Tillis has only slightly increased his support from a month ago when he was at 19%. It’s interesting to note that Harris, often viewed as the top competitor to Tillis, continues to lag in support compared to Brannon and even Grant and Alexander who aren’t viewed as serious candidates. It’s taking a long time for this field to really develop.

The general election picture in the Senate race remains the same, with Kay Hagan trailing most of her potential opponents by small margins. 41% of voters approve of Hagan to 50% who disapprove of her, making this the fourth month in a row she’s had roughly a -10 net approval rating since attack ads started being run against her. Her approval continues to correlate very closely to Obamacare’s approval in the state, which is a 38/51 spread.

Hagan is tied with Edward Kryn at 40% but beyond that trails the Republican field. She’s down 2 points to Heather Grant, Mark Harris, and Thom Tillis at 41/39, 42/40, and 42/40 respectively, trails Greg Brannon by 3 at 43/40, and has her largest deficit against Ted Alexander of 7 points at 45/38. The Republican candidates continue to be mostly unknown with name recognition for all of them hovering around 25-27% except for Tillis who 44% of voters are familiar with.

“The North Carolina Senate race has been very stable over the last 4 months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Kay Hagan’s in close match ups with most of her Republican opponents, and no one can really break away in the primary field.”

PPP surveyed 708 registered voters from February 6th to 9th, including 305 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.7%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.6%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Alexander?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Edward Kryn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Ted
Alexander, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 38%
Ted Alexander…………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg
Brannon, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 40%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Heather
Grant, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 39%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark
Harris, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 40%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Edward
Kryn, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 40%
Edward Kryn …………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom
Tillis, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan……………………………………………… 40%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q15 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 56%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q16 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q17 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 8%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 27%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 19%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q18 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%

Q21 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%

Q23 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Q24 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 10%
336………………………………………………………… 16%
704………………………………………………………… 14%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 9%
919………………………………………………………… 17%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Alexander?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Brannon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Grant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Harris?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Edward Kryn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%

Q7 Given the choices of Ted Alexander, Greg
Brannon, Heather Grant, Mark Harris, Edward
Kryn, and Thom Tillis, who would you most like
to see as the Republican candidate for Senate
this fall?
Ted Alexander…………………………………………. 10%
Greg Brannon …………………………………………. 13%
Heather Grant …………………………………………. 13%
Mark Harris …………………………………………….. 8%
Edward Kryn …………………………………………… 2%
Thom Tillis ……………………………………………… 20%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 34%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 7%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q10 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%

Q11 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 16%
910………………………………………………………… 9%
919………………………………………………………… 15%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 15%