Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s post-Democratic convention North
Carolina poll finds virtually no change from last week. Barack Obama leads
49-48, a result hardly different from the 48/48 tie we found last week.
That’s not to say the convention wasn’t a success for Democrats. 57% of
voters think hosting it was a good thing for North Carolina to only 15% who
believed it was a bad thing with 26% considering it neutral. Democrats consider
it to have been a positive by an 84/4 margin and independents do 53/11.
Republicans though believe it was a bad thing by a 34/23 margin. By a 47/39
margin North Carolinians say the Democrats had a better convention than the
Republicans.
Why no bounce? North Carolina voters have simply proven to be pretty
intractable. We have polled an Obama/Romney match up in the state 25 times
since November of 2010. Obama and Romney have been within 3 points of each
other 24 out of those 25 times. Sometimes Obama’s up by a little and sometimes
Romney’s up by a little but it’s never outside the margin of error. The state
of play in North Carolina this year is that each candidate has about 46% of the
vote locked up, has had it locked up forever, and now they’re just fighting over
a very small persuadable swath of the electorate and seeing who has the
superior GOTV operation. Barring a big shift in the national picture over the
final eight weeks it’s unlikely either candidate will win by more than 2-3
points, and a less than 1% difference in the final outcome like 2008 seems very
plausible.
The marginal bump Obama has received is due to tying the race with
independents at 48%. Last week Romney had led 51-40 with them. The convention
didn’t do anything to help Democrats win over Republican voters though.
Romney’s lead with the party base solidified, going from 86/10 to 93/5. Obama
saw some party unification in the wake of the convention too though, going from
a 79/19 lead with Democrats to 81/17.
“North Carolina’s been a swing state from the start and it looks like it
will be a swing state to the end,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “Neither candidate can break away here.”
PPP surveyed 1,087
likely North Carolina voters from September 7th to 9th. The margin
of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Did the Democratic convention make you more
or less likely to vote for Democrats this year, or
did it not make a difference?
More likely………….. .37%
Less likely ………….. .35%
Didn’t make a
difference …………….28%
Q5 Who do you think had a better convention: the
Democrats or the Republicans?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 47%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julian Castro?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michelle Obama?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 Do you have a higher opinion of Michelle
Obama or Ann Romney?
Michelle Obama………………………………………. 50%
Ann Romney …………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Who do you think gives better speeches:
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 60%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q15 Do you think the Democratic convention being
in Charlotte was good, bad, or neutral for the
state of North Carolina?
Good……………………………………………………… 57%
Bad ……………………………………………………….. 15%
Neutral …………………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q16 Who do you think deserves more credit for the
killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 63%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q22 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 14%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 22%
