Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s pre-Democratic convention North
Carolina poll finds the Presidential race in the state all tied up: Barack
Obama and Mitt Romney are each at 48%.
Just as we found in Florida, the Republican convention doesn’t seem to be
giving Romney much of a bounce. 34% of voters say that the convention made them
more likely to support the GOP this year, 33% said it made them less likely to
do so, and 33% said it didn’t make a difference to them either way. Romney’s
lack of a convention bounce could simply be a product of his not being that
good of a public speaker. 56% of North Carolina voters say Obama gives better
speeches compared to 35% for Romney.
Although the Presidential race remains a toss up, Mitt Romney has seen some
improvement in his image with North Carolinians over the last month. 47% rate
him favorably now to 48% with an unfavorable opinion. That’s up a net 7 points
from our last poll when he was at a -8 spread with 42% of voters rating him
positively and 50% negatively. Obama’s approval rating has barely changed since
early August in the state- 48% of voters think he’s doing a good job to 50% who
disapprove of him. Romney and Obama are both slightly under water in their
favorability/approval numbers.
Obama’s areas of strength are pretty predictable. He’s up 51-44 with women,
83-15 with non-white voters, and 50-45 with folks under 65. Romney is up 52-44
with men, 60-35 with white voters, and 58-39 with seniors. That wide
generational gap is particularly telling- North Carolina might be a swing state
for a long time moving forward. Romney’s overcoming the Democratic registration
advantage in the state thanks to a 51-40 advantage with independents.
“North Carolina looks like a sheer toss up heading into the Democratic
convention,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If the
Democrats have a successful week in Charlotte Barack Obama will have a very
good chance at carrying the state again like he did in 2008.”
PPP surveyed 1,012
likely North Carolina voters from August 31st to September 2nd . The
margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or
authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q4 Did the Republican convention make you more
or less likely to vote for Republicans this year,
or did it not make a difference?
More likely………….. .34%
Less likely ………….. .33%
Didn’t make a
difference …………….33%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the speech Clint Eastwood gave at the
Republican convention?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clint Eastwood in general?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 Who do you think gives better speeches:
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan’s
proposal for reforming Medicare?
Support ………………………………………………….. 41%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q15 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 51%
He should not………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q21 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 22%
