Raleigh, N.C. – For a time last summer, the California Senate race between Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina was a close one, but even in a Republican wave, Boxer ended up cruising to re-election. Her much more popular senior colleague, Dianne Feinstein, will benefit not only from greater favor with voters but also a more favorable electorate when she is up next year. Except for her first re-election race in 1994, Feinstein has never lost by fewer than 16 points. As it stands now, that trend should hold. Any Republican thrown at her gets blown out by at least 14 points.
Boxer defeated Fiorina by ten points three months ago, but Feinstein is set to double that margin to 55-35. Feinstein’s closest competitor is the moderate former congressman Tom Campbell, who Fiorina outdueled in the Senate primary. But he still trails 51-37. Meg Whitman, who spent more of her own money than any candidate in history before falling to Jerry Brown for governor by 13 points, can only match Fiorina’s 55-35 deficit. Steve Poizner, who Whitman beat in the gubernatorial primary, lags Feinstein, 52-34. Crusading Congressman Darrell Issa falls, 54-33. And ex-governor Arnold Schwarzenegger gets whalloped, 59-25.
Feinstein wins independents’ support by 16 (against Fiorina) to an astounding 36 points (versus Schwarzenegger). She also takes 11% (Poizner) to 21% (Schwarzenegger) of the GOP, and gives up only 6% (Poizner) to 10% (Whitman and Campbell) of her own party, which allows her to build even further on Democrats’ 45-32 registration advantage.
Feinstein’s 50-39 approval margin puts her in the top third of the 78 senators PPP has measured in the last year. Schwarzenegger left office as the least popular governor in the country, and the public’s views on him have not improved. He has a 25-65 favorability rating. None of the others except Campbell (21-18) is seen positively, but none of them comes close to that level of disfavor. At 28-50, Whitman is next least liked, followed by Fiorina’s 29-48, Issa’s 16-32, and Poizner’s 19-32.
“Dianne Feinstein is too popular and California too Democratic, especially with Obama on the ballot, for her to be in much trouble for a fourth full term,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 892 California voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Barbara Boxer’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 45%
Disapprove………… 47%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Dianne Feinstein’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 50%
Disapprove………… 39%
Not sure ……………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Campbell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carly Fiorina?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Darrell Issa?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Poizner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Arnold Schwarzenegger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Meg Whitman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Tom Campbell, who would you vote for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 51%
Tom Campbell…………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Carly Fiorina, who would you vote for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 55%
Carly Fiorina …………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Darrell Issa, who would you vote for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 54%
Darrell Issa……………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Steve Poizner, who would you vote for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 52%
Steve Poizner …………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Arnold Schwarzenegger, who would you vote
for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 59%
Arnold Schwarzenegger……………………………. 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican
Meg Whitman, who would you vote for?
Dianne Feinstein……………………………………… 55%
Meg Whitman………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 46%
Conservative…………………………………………… 30%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If Asian, press 4.
If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 19%
White …………………………………………………….. 63%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Asian……………………………………………………… 5%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
