Raleigh, N.C. – Even as the Republican field for president really starts to take final shape, there truly is no frontrunner, perhaps more than ever before. And several longshot contenders are getting significant traction in this unclear environment, while others decline. Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin share the lead at 16% in PPP’s latest national poll of Republican primary voters, with Tim Pawlenty at 13%, Herman Cain at 12%, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Michele Bachmann at 9% each, and Jon Huntsman at 4%. While her potential candidacy has received renewed speculation in the last week, if Palin does not make a bid, it would boost Romney to 20%, Gingrich and Bachmann to 13%, and Paul to 11%, with the other three running in place.
Just two weeks ago, with Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump still potentially in the race, Huckabee led Romney, 19-18, with Gingrich at 13%, Palin at 12%, Trump and Paul at 8%, Bachmann at 7%, and Pawlenty at 5%. Pawlenty’s post-announcement PR tour has given him a huge boost, the first time he has been out of the low to mid-single digits in a PPP national poll. Cain, who, like Huntsman, was included for the first time in this poll, has benefited greatly from his performance in the first debate a few weeks ago. Gingrich, meanwhile, has seen a decline after the disaster that was his first week as an official candidate. Huckabee’s absence slightly benefits Palin and Bachmann, and hurts Romney.
Last week, PPP released numbers showing the political dimensions of the Rapture. GOP primary voters are slightly more likely than the overall public to say the Rapture will occur in their lifetimes (18% versus 11%) and that they personally will be taken up to Heaven if it does (72% versus 66%). Those who think they will not or who are not sure if they will be Raptured favor Romney at 23%, with most of the rest in the low double digits, and the results for those who do think they will be Raptured closely mirror the toplines.
PPP surveyed 574 usual Republican primary voters nationwide from May 23rd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you usually vote in Democratic or
Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic primaries ……………………………….. 0%
Republican primaries ……………………………….100%
Don’t usually vote in primaries …………………… 0%
Q5 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 12%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q6 If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 13%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 12%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 13%
Q7 Did you believe the Rapture was going to occur
on Saturday or not?
Believed the Rapture was going to occur…….. 2%
Did not believe it was going to occur…………… 98%
Q8 Do you believe that the Rapture will occur in
your lifetime or not?
Believe the Rapture will occur in your lifetime. 18%
Think it will not ………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q9 Combination of Q13 Response Categories
Rapture will occure ………………………………….. 18%
Rapture will not occur/not sure ………………….. 82%
Q10 If the Rapture occurs in your lifetime do you
think you will be one of those taken up to
Heaven or not?
Think you will be taken up to Heaven …………. 72%
Think you will not …………………………………….. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 Combination of Q15 Response Categories
Will be Raptured ……………………………………… 72%
Will not be Raptured/Not Sure …………………… 28%
Q12 Do you think Barack Obama would be taken up
to Heaven in the Rapture or not?
Think Obama would be taken up to Heaven … 19%
Think he would not…………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q13 Do you think Sarah Palin would be taken up to
Heaven in the Rapture or not?
Think Palin would be taken up to Heaven……. 51%
Think she would not…………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 80%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
