Raleigh, N.C. – Jay Nixon remains in solid shape for re-election next fall. None of three prospective Republican challengers gets within single digits of the Missouri governor. Former governor Matt Blunt would come closest, trailing 48-38, followed by Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, 48-34. That marks a doubling of Nixon’s spread against Kinder since PPP last polled the race two months ago; then, Kinder was the only candidate tested, and lagged only 45-38. A rematch with former Rep. Kenny Hulshof would yield a victory margin for Nixon almost equal to his 19-point victory in 2008, 51-34.
Nixon’s approval rating has nudged just barely more positive, from 47-31 to 48-29 in the last two months, because he has improved slightly with voters of both parties, from 60-24 with Democrats to 61-19, and from 32-40 with Republicans to almost breaking even at 36-38. He continues to be one of the most popular politicians with voters across the aisle in the country, and is overall the 11th best liked governor in the country. Unfortunately for him, few of those Republicans end up voting for him; he takes only 11-14% of the GOP. But luckily for him, his weakness with his own party on the job performance front disappears at the ballot box, winning 84-87% and losing only 5-8% of Democrats. He also posts leads of 19 to 29 points with the 27% who call themselves independents.
Blunt is the least liked candidate personally, but he performs best against the governor because he is currently the best known. Blunt’s net -10 favorabily rating is worse than Kinder’s -2 and Hulshof’s -4, but less than a quarter of voters are unaware of Blunt, compared to just over half who cannot express an opinion of each of the others. This suggests that Hulshof and Kinder may have a better chance at catching up to Nixon in a general election when voters have more perfect information about the candidates, or that either could become less popular when voters know more about them.
“Jay Nixon continues to look like a pretty solid favorite for reelection at this early stage,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 555 Missouri voters from April 28th to May 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 48%
Disapprove………… 29%
Not sure ……………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Blunt?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kenny Hulshof?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Kinder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Matt
Blunt, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 48%
Matt Blunt……………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Kenny
Hulshof, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 51%
Kenny Hulshof ………………………………………… 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Peter
Kinder, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 48%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
