Raleigh, N.C. – Missouri Governor Jay Nixon leads a largely unknown Republican field for Governor by big margins, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. Nixon leads both announced candidates, businessman Dave Spence by 20 points (47-27), and consultant Bill Randles by 18 points (47-29), and leads potential candidate State Auditor Tom Schweich by 18 also (48-30).
Voters have almost no impression of any of three potential challengers. Bill Randles is unknown by 76% of the electorate, while 9% view him favorably and 16% unfavorably. Dave Spence is unknown by 79% of voters and, with 6% holding a favorable view and 15% unfavorable. And Tom Schweich, the only current office holder of the challengers we tested, is unknown to 72% of voters with a 12% favorability rating and 16% unfavorable.
Nixon is aided by a positive job approval rating. 44% of voters approve and 31% disapprove. He enjoys support from Democrats (54-25), Independents (44-29), and slightly over one third of Republican voters also approve of his job performance (34-40).
“Jay Nixon’s in a very strong position right now for two reasons,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The first is that he has an unusual amount of appeal to Republican and independent voters for a Democratic Governor. That alone would make him a very formidable candidate. But he’s also benefiting from the fact that he has very weak opposition.”
PPP releases earlier this week in Missouri found that the races for both President and Senate in the state look like toss ups, with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied in the state and Claire McCaskill knotted with all three of her potential Republican opponents.
PPP surveyed 582 Missouri voters from January 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 44%
Disapprove………… 31%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Randles?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Schweich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Spence?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Bill
Randles, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 47%
Bill Randles…………………………………………….. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Tom
Schweich, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 48%
Tom Schweich…………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Dave
Spence, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 47%
Dave Spence ………………………………………….. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 26%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
