Raleigh, N.C. – Too bad for Republicans that former Senator John Danforth decided against a gubernatorial bid in Missouri next year—because he is the only one revered enough to even come close to beating the popular, moderate incumbent Jay Nixon.
According to PPP’s latest poll of the race, Danforth would have actually led Nixon by six points, 45-39. But against four others, Nixon leads by nine to 21 points. The most likely nominee until recent scandals arose, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder trails, 50-31, a decline of five points on the margin for Kinder since PPP last polled the state in May. Nixon won his current term by a similar spread. Two other potential candidates—Nixon’s predecessor Matt Blunt and former Senator and 2000 gubernatorial nominee Jim Talent—would trail by respective 50-37 and 47-38 margins. The only candidate other than Kinder actually in the race, unknown attorney Bill Randles, trails 45-24.
51% approve and only 30% disapprove of the work Nixon has been doing, up a tad from the 48-29 measured four months ago. He is now the 10th most popular of the 42 governors on which PPP has polled. Nixon is not terribly popular with his own party (58-21), but he has huge crossover support, almost breaking even with Republicans (40-42). Independents here are more numerous than in many states, at 30% of the electorate, and they like him better than Democrats do, falling 57-26 in his favor.
Though most of those Republicans fall back in line when it comes time to vote, Nixon still manages 13-16% of their support, even against Danforth. And other than Danforth, the Republicans earn only 5-7% of Democrats. Nixon also leads by 13 to 26 points with independents except against Danforth, with Kinder the worst off.
“Republicans can stick with Peter Kinder,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But at this point he would do just as bad as Kenny Hulshof did in 2008. They’d probably need a different face to really give Jay Nixon a run for his money.”
PPP surveyed 632 Missouri voters from September 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 51%
Disapprove………… 30%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Blunt?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Danforth?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Kinder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Randles?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Talent?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Matt
Blunt, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 50%
Matt Blunt……………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican John
Danforth, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 39%
John Danforth …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Peter
Kinder, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 50%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Bill
Randles, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 45%
Bill Randles…………………………………………….. 24%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Jim
Talent, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 47%
Jim Talent ………………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
