Raleigh, N.C. – As PPP has found in previous polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would be a field clearer in a potential 2016 Democratic presidential primary like no one but an incumbent. In the latest poll of the Granite State, Clinton continues her dominance, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie sets himself slightly apart from a larger and more well-known prospective Republican field.
Clinton has the same 55% of voters’ preferences as when PPP last polled the state in May, and no one else has gained any ground. 9% want Vice President Joe Biden to be the nominee in four years, with 8% opting for the neighboring Bay State’s Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren, 6% New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 3% Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, and 1% Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner get almost no love, and 17% are not sure who they might prefer. In Clinton’s absence, Biden narrowly tops Warren and Cuomo, 19-17-15. In a more wide-open field, Cuomo leads 23-18-12 over Warren and Patrick.
Across the aisle, Christie has 24% to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s 15%, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s 12%, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s 10%, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan’s 8%, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s 7%, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s 3%, with only 2% not sure or opting for someone else.
Most of this poll’s interviews were conducted before Ryan was picked to be Mitt Romney’s running mate, but he is up a barely measurable two points from May. Christie is up four, and Bush and Paul each down three. Where Ryan has jumped is in his name recognition. Three months ago, 62% had an opinion of him; now that is 75%. Favorability-wise, he is the fourth-best-liked of the nine Republicans after Christie, Rubio, and Bush. The Democratic options continue to be more of a mystery to their voters than the Republicans are to theirs. 31-87% of Democrats can express no opinion on the non-Biden and –Clinton candidates, versus 10-42% on the GOP side.
PPP surveyed 400 usual New Hampshire Democratic primary voters and 547 Republican primary voters from August 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the Democratic sample is +/-4.9%, and +/-4.2% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 91%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 87%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q9 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Deval
Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 9%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 55%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 6%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 3%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 0%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 17%
Q10 If Hillary Clinton didn’t run for President in
2016, who would you most like to see as the
Democratic nominee?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 19%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 15%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 3%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 7%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 17%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 37%
Q11 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 23%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 12%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 18%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 42%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 34%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 6%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 1%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 66%
Republican……………………………………………… 2%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Walker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q10 If Mitt Romney was not a candidate in 2016,
and the Republican candidates for President
were Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul
Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker, who
would you most like to see as the GOP
candidate for President?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 15%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 24%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 12%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 7%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 10%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 12%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 8%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 7%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 24%
Are not …………………………………………………… 76%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 31%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 2%
Republican……………………………………………… 66%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
