Raleigh, N.C. – Some have speculated that Gavin Newsom would have been a better candidate to rally the Democratic troops to retake the governor’s mansion than Jerry Brown. But PPP’s latest poll of likely voters shows that Newsom has an even tougher fight on his hands to hold off Abel Maldonado for lieutenant governor than Brown does against Meg Whitman. Newsom leads Maldonado only 39-36, with 24% still undecided. As in the gubernatorial contest, the Republican pulls a little more crossover support than the Democrat, but the race could hinge on independents, who lean to Maldonado, 35-31, with 34% still unsure of their vote, accounting for 6% of the projected electorate.
Democrats also lead Republicans, 51-38, on the generic congressional ballot. Independents give a narrow 34-29 lead to the Republicans, but 37% are undecided. With this lead, most of California’s Democratic incumbents should be safe, but up to four Democratic-held seats and two GOP seats are being closely contested this fall, all in swing districts barely favorable to one side or another.
By a narrow 46-44 margin, likely voters in this fall’s election support gay marriage. The level of support is the same as PPP’s survey of registered voters in July, but the amount of opposition has fallen from 47%. Considering the margin of error and the similar internal figures, the shift is likely just statistical noise. It is safe to say Californians are still very split on the issue.
In July, PPP also asked whether voters “support or oppose” Proposition 19, which would legalize, tax, and regulate marijuana under state law. Then, 52% supported it, and 36% opposed it. When asked this month how they plan to vote on the prop, 47% said they will vote yes, and 38% no, with 14% undecided. Democrats and Republicans both seem less willing to say they will actually vote for the prop than say they support the idea, but independents have not moved.
There is much wider support for Prop 20, which would cede congressional redistricting from the legislature’s control to a multipartisan independent commission. 42% plan to vote in favor, though nearly as many, 41%, are still undecided. 16% are opposed.
PPP surveyed 630 likely California voters from September 14th to 16th. The margin of error is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Republican Abel Maldonado and Democrat
Gavin Newsom. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Abel Maldonado …. 36%
Gavin Newsom…… 39%
Undecided…………. 24%
Q2 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 46%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Proposition 19 would legalize marijuana under
California but not federal law. It would permit
local governments to regulate and tax
commercial production, distribution, and sale of
marijuana. Will you vote yes or no on
Proposition 19?
Yes………………………………………………………… 47%
No …………………………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Proposition 20 would remove elected
representatives from process of establishing
congressional districts and transfers that
authority to a recently-authorized 14-member
redistricting commission comprised of
Democrats, Republicans, and representatives
of neither party. Will you vote yes or no on
Proposition 20?
Yes………………………………………………………… 42%
No …………………………………………………………. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 41%
Q5 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 36%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q7 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 27%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 34%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 49%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If Asian, press 4.
If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 20%
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Asian……………………………………………………… 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
