Like all of you we are horrified by the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion rights last Friday. And we want to share with you a poll that we conducted over the weekend that shows the potential political impact the decision could have. Because it could be a game changer in terms of where we thought this election cycle was headed.
After the decision came down we quickly went into the field in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District for Global Strategy Group. Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick won by 13 points there in 2020. But we found him only ahead by 7 points against his opponent Ashley Ehasz. It’s been pretty unusual to find any Republicans in a worse position now than they were in last time around given the difficult political climate for Democrats.
Then we did an informed ballot question, focused specifically on Fitzpatrick’s record of wanting to restrict abortion even if the woman’s life is in danger or in most cases of rape and incest.
We’ll be very honest. Informed ballot questions don’t move the needle in polling nearly as much as they used to because voters are so dug in. If people want to vote Democratic they’re going to vote Democratic and if they want to vote Republican they’re going to vote Republican and new information usually doesn’t do much to change that.
So we were *stunned* to see that when voters find out about Fitzpatrick’s record on abortion, it moves the race by 17 POINTS! He went from leading by 7 points to trailing by 10. You can read the full memo from Global Strategy Group here.
We know from tons of national polling that Americans are overwhelmingly pro choice and that the Supreme Court decision is way out of line with where they stand on this issue. This poll shows how much conservative extremism on choice can move the needle this year in the wake of this decision- if we make sure Republicans up and down the ballot are held thoroughly accountable for their positions and the actions of their allies.
So in this terrible time, we hope this polling gives a little hope and shows a little bit of a path forward. And if we can help you navigate the new political landscape in the wake of the decision last week, please shoot us an email. We are always glad to help.
Thanks for all the great work you do to move our country forward-