PPP’s new New York poll finds Donald Trump heading for a dominant victory in his home state, where he gets 51% to 25% for John Kasich and 20% for Ted Cruz.
There had been some thought Cruz might have momentum after his big win in Wisconsin last week, but New Yorkers hate him. Even among Republicans just 35% see him favorably to 50% with an unfavorable opinion. Kasich has a narrowly positive favorability at 41/38, but the only candidate GOP voters in the state really like is Trump at 65/29.
One thing ensuring a big win for Trump in New York next week is how divided his opposition is, and that dynamic presents itself in every way we measure it. Voters are closely split on their second choice, with 24% saying it’s Cruz and 23% saying it’s Kasich. If voters had to choose between Kasich and Cruz, Kasich wins narrowly 45/39. In head to head match ups with Trump, Kasich trails by 34 at 63/29 and Cruz trails by 35 at 60/25. There’s nothing on any of these fronts to help anti-Trump voters figure out what the best vehicle for them is.
In most states that have voted recently there have been clear indications beyond the horse race question that Trump was likely to do worse on Election Day than his pre-election poll standing, but not in New York. Beyond having the highest favorability of the candidates and dominating both Cruz and Kasich in head to head match ups, Trump also has by far and away the most committed base of support. 80% of his voters say they’ll definitely support him, compared to only 56% for Cruz and 48% for Kasich who say that.
Trump’s winning every key group in New York. He leads Cruz 52/35 among ‘very conservative’ voters (Kasich gets 7%,) and Kasich 51/37 among moderates (Cruz gets 10%). Trump also leads with 55% among men, 54% with seniors, 50% among younger voters, and 46% among women. Regionally Trump’s greatest dominance comes in the New York City suburbs where he gets 64% to 21% for Kasich, and 11% for Cruz. He also has a majority in the city itself at 52% to 37% for Kasich, and 9% for Cruz. The race is closer upstate but Trump still has the upper hand with 44% to 27% for Cruz, and 24% for Kasich. All those results bode pretty well for Trump winning the vast majority of the state’s Congressional Districts.
Perhaps if someone wants to break away from the pack they can attack Hamilton for casting George Washington with a black actor. Only 27% of Republican primary voters find that acceptable, to 45% who disapprove of it.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton’s leading with 51% to 40% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton benefits from more committed support than Sanders- 88% of her voters say they’ll definitely cast their ballots for her, compared to 71% of Sanders backers who say the same. All the normal splits present themselves in New York. Clinton is dominant with women (57/34), but trails slightly with men (47/44). The race is close among white voters- a 47/43 Clinton lead- while she has much more emphatic advantages with Hispanics (66/28) and African Americans (61/32). Sanders is ahead with younger voters (56/40), but Clinton’s up by even more with seniors (63/27). Clinton’s lead is widest in New York City (55/38), followed by the suburbs (51/40), and the race is effectively tied upstate (47/44).
New York is solidly blue for the general election no matter who the candidates are. Donald Trump is hated in his home state, with a 30/65 favorability rating. He trails Clinton by 20 (55/35) and Sanders by 25 (58/33). Cruz is even worse off with just 18% of New Yorkers seeing him positively to 69% with a negative opinion. He does the worst against the Democratic candidates, trailing Clinton by 26 points at 56/30 and Sanders by 32 points at 59/27. As is the case everywhere Kasich is the best hope for Republicans in New York, but he still trails Clinton by 14 at 50/36, and Sanders by 19 at 54/35.
Full results here