Raleigh, N.C. –With the retirement of Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman, the race has become more competitive; however, the Democrats remain favored to retain the seat.
State Auditor Hector Balderas and Congressman Martin Heinrich both lead their potential Republican opponents. Balderas leads Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez 39-35, former Congresswoman Heather Wilson 45-39, and businessman Greg Sowards 42-28. Heinrich achieves similar margins, leading Sanchez 45-39, Wilson 47-42 (Narrowing from 50-39 in February), and Sowards 46-34. While crossover support is either even or to the Republican’s advantage in each matchup, the Democrats have a significant advantage with independents aside from the Sanchez-Balderas race. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 51-32, that’s a recipe for a Democratic victory.
Aside from Wilson, the field is relatively unknown with 32% or more unwilling to venture an opinion one way or the other on the other candidates. Both Democrats are slightly in positive territory among those who know them. 22% see Balderas favorably compared to 17% who see him unfavorably. Heinrich is better known and about as popular with a 36-32 rating. The Republicans on the other hand are not well liked. Sanchez rates most favorably 23-28, followed by Wilson at 38-45, and Sowards at 7-17. With such low name recognition among the candidates, the race has the potential to be very fluid and the Democrats can’t take it for granted.
“This race is going to be competitive but it has a clear lean toward the Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Wilson and Sanchez probably aren’t strong enough candidates to win the seat if Barack Obama simultaneously takes the state by double digits as he did in 2008.”
PPP will release Presidential numbers for New Mexico tomorrow and will look at the primaries for Senate later this week as well.
PPP surveyed 732 New Mexico voters from June 23th to 26th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hector Balderas?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin Heinrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Sanchez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Sowards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Wilson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
John Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 39%
John Sanchez …………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
Greg Sowards, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 42%
Greg Sowards…………………………………………. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 45%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
John Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 45%
John Sanchez …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Greg Sowards, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 46%
Greg Sowards…………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Heather Wilson, who would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 47%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 37%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 39%
White …………………………………………………….. 49%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
