Raleigh, N.C. – Two-term Florida Senator Bill Nelson still holds big leads over every potential Republican challenger as the August 14 primary approaches.
No potential Republican nominee comes within 13 points of Nelson, who was re-elected with 60% of the vote in 2006. In mid-April, when the last statewide Senate race poll was conducted, Nelson had similar double-digit leads over all candidates in the Republican primary field.
The closest contest is with Congressman Connie Mack IV, who trails Nelson by 13 points, 36-49. Mack IV trailed by just 10 points in April, signaling that Nelson may be pulling away from his most threatening challenger. Former (appointed) U.S. Senator George LeMieux also trails by 13, 35-48. He has closed the gap 1 point since April, when he was down 34-48 to Nelson. Mike McCalister trails Nelson by 14 points, and former Congressman Dave Weldon trails by 16 points.
Nelson’s steady, convincing leads in such a notoriously divided state can be attributed to his broad appeal, as evidenced by strong support in a variety of demographics. Nelson performs very well with Independents in matchups with potential Republican nominees, beating each Republican challenger by at least 20 points. Nelson wins with every racial group, even Whites, in every head-to-head matchup with a potential Republican nominee. Nelson also wins all age groups in every head-to-head matchup.
Among Florida Republican primary voters, Mack IV leads in a matchup of all Republican Senate primary candidates with 34% support. LeMieux comes in a distant second with 13% support, McCalister in third with 10% and Weldon in fourth with 6%. 28% are undecided.
“Bill Nelson continues to be favored for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And Connie Mack IV is still the clear favorite on the Republican side, with Dave Weldon having little immediate impact on the race.”
PPP surveyed 642 Florida voters and 448 Florida Republican primary voters from May 31st to June 3rd. The margin of error for the general survey is +/-3.9% and +/-4.6% for the Republican primary survey. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .39%
Disapprove…………. .31%
Not sure …………….. .30%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George LeMieux?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McCalister?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Weldon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican George
LeMieux, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 48%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie
Mack IV, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 49%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Mike
McCalister, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 47%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Dave
Weldon, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 47%
Dave Weldon ………………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George LeMieux?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McCalister?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Weldon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q5 The main Republican candidates for Senate
are George LeMieux, Connie Mack IV, Mike
McCalister, and Dave Weldon. If the primary
was today, who would you vote for?
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 13%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 34%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 10%
Dave Weldon ………………………………………….. 6%
Someone else…………………………………………. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 44%
Man……………………………………………………….. 56%
Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 37%
