Raleigh, N.C.– The Florida Senate race is one of the
strangest in the country this year. Bill Nelson has middling approval numbers,
with only 35% of voters approving of him to 42% who disapprove. Usually an
incumbent in that kind of position would be doomed for defeat. And yet Nelson
has a 7 point lead over Connie Mack IV, 45-38, representing a 5 point increase
in his lead compared to our last poll in late July.
The reason Nelson’s ahead despite being unpopular is that Mack is even
more unpopular. Only 27% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 45%
with an unfavorable one. Just 17% of independents have a positive opinion of
Mack to 48% with a negative one, and much of Nelson’s lead comes thanks to a
45-29 advantage with that group.
“Bill Nelson is the clear favorite in the Florida Senate race,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters aren’t exactly in love with
him but they like Connie Mack IV even less.”
Charlie Crist isn’t a particularly popular figure in Florida anymore. After
his endorsement of President Obama only 36% of voters in the state now have a
positive opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. He’s lost most of his
remaining appeal to Republican voters- he was at 34/49 with them a month ago
and now he’s dropped a net 21 points to 24/60. Democrats still appear to be
somewhat skeptical of him as well though- 44% rate him positively to 33% with a
negative opinion.
44% of voters in the state now think he should complete the switch and join
the Democratic Party to 20% who think he should not. There’s bipartisan
consensus on that front with Democrats (56/12), independents (39/13), and
Republicans (36/32) all saying he should do that.
In a hypothetical match Crist, running as a Democrat, would lead Rick Scott
45-42. A generic Democrat would lead Scott by the exact same 45-42 spread. Scott’s approval rating is 41% with 49% of
voters disapproving of him. Although he continues to be unpopular these are
actually the best numbers we’ve found for him since he took office.
PPP surveyed 1,548
likely Florida voters from August 31st to September 2nd . The margin
of error for the survey is +/-2.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .35%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q3 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie
Mack IV. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 45%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .41%
Disapprove…………. .49%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q5 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican Rick
Scott or his Democratic opponent?
Rick Scott…………… .42%
Democratic
opponent……………..45%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 Do you think Charlie Crist should become a
Democrat, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 44%
He should not………………………………………….. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Rick Scott and Charlie Crist,
running as a Democrat, who would you vote
for?
Rick Scott……………………………………………….. 42%
Charlie Crist ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Debbie Wasserman Schultz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q10 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
