Raleigh, N.C. – Democrats have their largest lead since June in the generic ballot test for control of the North Carolina General Assembly, and their second-biggest edge since the calendar turned to 2010. 46% of Tar Heel voters would cast their ballot for the Democratic candidate in their district if the 2012 election were today, and 42% for the Republican. Last month, it was a tie, 43-43, and in June, 46-41 in the Democrats’ favor. The partisan lines have hardened, with both Democratic and Republican voters united behind their candidates, but independents have shifted 18 points in a month, from 47-25 in the GOP’s favor to only 36-32. The Republicans led this measure in PPP polls all but one month in 2010, en route to retaking both houses of the legislature.
Mirroring last month’s results that showed 45% thought the legislature’s budget would lead to job losses, and only 18% thought it would create jobs, now only 14% think the budget has had a positive economic impact on the state, while 45% think the effect has been negative. Even Republicans, by a 38-13 margin, view their party’s budget as disastrous. Democrats and independents closely mirror the overall results.
With the redistricting session of the legislature having just ended, voters are even less in favor of the new maps the G.A. passed than they were last month, when there were only drafts available. Only 19% like them, with 41% disapproving. Last month, the spread was 25-37. That ten points of movement has come entirely with Republicans (a 30-point decline from 51-8 to only 33-20) and independents (16 points from 26-37 to 20-47). Democrats still dislike the district boundaries, 8-54.
“Republicans better hope their new district maps hold up in the courts because if there was an election today with the current lines Democrats would take back control of the legislature,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Public opinion has moved strongly in their direction as it relates to state level politics over the last 6 months.”
PPP surveyed 780 North Carolina voters from August 4th to 7th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have more faith in Governor Perdue or
Legislative Republicans to lead the state?
Governor Perdue …………………………………….. 44%
Legislative Republicans ……………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you think the new state budget that went
into effect last month is having a positive or
negative impact on North Carolina, or no
impact at all?
Positive impact………………………………………… 14%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 45%
No impact at all ……………………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you support or oppose the redistricting
maps that were passed by the General
Assembly last month?
Support ………………………………………………….. 19%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 30%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q12
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 17%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 24%
