Raleigh, N.C. – With Bev Perdue’s retirement North Carolina looks to be headed for a closely contested Gubernatorial race this fall. 46% of voters in the state say they are generally leaning toward voting for a Democratic candidate, while 45% say they will vote Republican.
Despite the generic ballot basically being tied Pat McCrory starts out with the lead over 13 different potential Democratic opponents we tested him against, in large part because he has superior name recognition to all of them. McCrory’s also popular- 45% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 31% with a negative one and independents see him positively by a 55/25 spread.
By far the strongest Democratic candidate would be Erskine Bowles, who trails McCrory only 44-42 in a hypothetical contest. Bowles notably trails McCrory by only 19 points with whites, a group that Perdue lost by 25 points with in 2008. The only other Democrat to come within single digits of McCrory, and someone who hasn’t really received much discussion as a potential candidate, is Senator Kay Hagan. She trails by 7 points at 48-41.
The other Democrats all trail by 10 points or more. From ones who trail McCrory by the least to the ones who trail McCrory by the most they are: former State Treasurer Richard Moore who trails by 11 at 47-36, Congressman Brad Miller who trails by 14 at 49-35, Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton and former Congressman Bob Etheridge who each trail by 15 at 50-35, Congressman Heath Shuler who trails by 17 at 48-31, Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx and State Senator Dan Blue who each trail by 18 at 50-32 and 49-31 respectively, State Representative Bill Faison who trails by 19 at 50-31, and Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines, former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker, and Congressman Mike McIntyre who each trail by 20 at 50-30, 49-29, and 50-30 respectively.
“Bev Perdue’s retirement has clearly helped Democratic chances of holding the Governor’s office this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Where she consistently trailed by double digits, a generic Democrat actually has a one point lead in our polling. Pat McCrory is a very formidable Republican candidate, but with a new face Democrats will now have a fighting chance.”
PPP surveyed 554 North Carolina voters from January 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Generally speaking, would you like the next
Governor of North Carolina to be a Democrat
or a Republican?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Erskine Bowles?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Erskine Bowles …… .42%
Pat McCrory……….. .44%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Walter Dalton and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ……… .35%
Pat McCrory……….. .50%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Faison?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Bill Faison and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bill Faison ………….. .31%
Pat McCrory……….. .50%
Not sure …………….. .19%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Anthony Foxx?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Anthony Foxx and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Anthony Foxx……… .32%
Pat McCrory……….. .50%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brad Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Brad Miller and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Brad Miller………….. .35%
Pat McCrory……….. .49%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Moore?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Richard Moore and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Richard Moore ……. .36%
Pat McCrory……….. .47%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McIntyre?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Mike McIntyre and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Mike McIntyre …….. .30%
Pat McCrory……….. .50%
Not sure …………….. .20%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allan Joines?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q18 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Allan Joines and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Allan Joines ……….. .30%
Pat McCrory……….. .50%
Not sure …………….. .21%
Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Etheridge?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q20 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Bob Etheridge and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bob Etheridge …….. .35%
Pat McCrory……….. .50%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Blue?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q22 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Dan Blue and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Dan Blue……………. .31%
Pat McCrory……….. .49%
Not sure …………….. .19%
Q23 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heath Shuler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q24 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Heath Shuler and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Heath Shuler………. .31%
Pat McCrory……….. .48%
Not sure …………….. .21%
Q25 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kay Hagan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q26 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Kay Hagan…………. .41%
Pat McCrory……….. .48%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q27 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charles Meeker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q28 If the candidates for Governor this year were
Democrat Charles Meeker and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Charles Meeker ….. .29%
Pat McCrory……….. .49%
Not sure …………….. .22%
Q29 Last year’s state budget cut millions of dollars
from the state’s early childhood programs,
public schools, and higher education that
resulted in layoffs of teachers, teacher
assistants, and higher class sizes. Would you
support a 3/4-cent increase in the state sales
tax to restore funding for education?
Would support a sales tax increase for
education ………………………………………………..47%
Opposed ………………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q30 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q31 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q32 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 49%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 15%
Q33 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q34 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q35
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 24%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 25%
