Raleigh, N.C. – As North Carolina’s Republican leaders propose budget cut after cut, there has been a six-point shift in two months on the 2012 generic legislative ballot. In March, Republicans were on top 45-41 over the Democrats in the statewide popular vote for the General Assembly. Last month, that became a 45-45 tie. Now, the Democratic candidates still get 45% of the state’s votes, but the Republicans have dropped to 43%. Every month last year, the GOP was down at worst one point, and was most often up by a healthy margin in PPP polls. They ultimately took control of both houses of the G.A. by winning the statewide vote by double digits, including by about 20 with independents. Now, they are up only 37-33 with independents.
Despite her own unpopularity, what Bev Perdue can take to the bank is that if voters are made more aware of the GOP’s agenda and feel its negative consequences, they will turn even more against them and give her more Democrats to work with in the legislature. Perdue vetoed a bill that would have extended unemployment benefits while tying her hands in budget negotiations. 55% of North Carolinians believe Republicans should allow Democrats’ stand-alone unemployment benefit extension bill to come to the floor for an up or down vote. Democrats, Republicans, and independents are united with Perdue and the Democratic legislators on this issue.
Similarly, 55% believe it is more important to limit cuts to education spending than to end the one-cent sales tax increase, which is favored by only 32%. Republicans have proposed significant cuts to public education, and instead of boosting revenue, are planning to actually cut it despite the budget deficit. 57% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and a 49% plurality of Republicans side with Perdue.
“With each passing month voters are turning more back toward wanting a Democratic legislative majority,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Pretty much everything the Republicans are doing is proving to be unpopular.”
PPP surveyed 835 North Carolina voters from May 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q4 Do you have more faith in Governor Perdue or
Legislative Republicans to lead the state?
Governor Perdue …………………………………….. 40%
Legislative Republicans ……………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you think the General Assembly should or
should not have an up-or-down vote on
extending unemployment benefits to 37,000
North Carolinians?
Should have an up-or-down vote ……………….. 55%
Should not………………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q6 What do you think is more important: ending
the temporary one cent sales tax increase or
minimizing cuts to education spending?
Ending the temporary one cent sales tax
increase is more important…………………………32%
Minimizing cuts to education spending is…….. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 Do you support or oppose reducing the length
of the early voting period by a week?
Support ………………………………………………….. 35%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 23%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q13
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 23%
704………………………………………………………… 15%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
