Raleigh, N.C. – If next May’s North Carolina primary were held right now, the so-called marriage amendment would pass handily. 61% say they would vote for an amendment to amend the constitution establishing that marriage between one man and one woman is the only union recognized in the state. 34% would vote against it. Republicans would support it by an 80-17 margin, and independents by 52-43, but that accounts for only 36% out of the 50% needed to pass. With Democrats making up just over half of the people who say they will vote in the primary, it needs their support too, and right now it gets it. Democrats just narrowly pledge to vote for it, 49-44.
Republicans will show up for the presidential primary, and they will almost unanimously support the amendment. For the amendment to fail, Democratic support will have to be cut in half, or more Democrats who oppose the amendment will have to turn out, or independents will have to be turned against it and more of them brought to the polls, or a combination of the three.
“Our polling has repeatedly found that a majority of North Carolinians support either gay marriage or civil unions for same sex couples,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The key for those opposed to this amendment will be to convince pro-civil union voters that it goes well beyond banning gay marriage and thus reaches too far.”
Though the gap has closed since last month, with the legislature out of session, General Assembly Republicans are still less popular than their Democratic counterparts. 38% have a favorable opinion of the Democratic legislators, and 36% of their friends across the aisle. 47% have an unfavorable opinion of the Democrats and 48% of the Republicans.
PPP surveyed 760 North Carolina voters, including 671 primary voters, from September 30th to October 3rd. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-3.6%, and +/-3.8% for the primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have more faith in Governor Perdue or
Legislative Republicans to lead the state?
Governor Perdue …………………………………….. 43%
Legislative Republicans ……………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you think you will vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary next spring, or will you not
vote in a primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 47%
Republican primary………………………………….. 40%
Won’t vote in a primary …………………………….. 13%
Q6 Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State? (Asked only of 671 likely primary
voters)
Would vote for it………………………………………. 61%
Would vote against it ……………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q7 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal? (Asked only of 671 likely
primary voters)
Legal……………………………………………………… 30%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
(Asked only of 671 likely primary voters)
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..22%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………29%
There should be no recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q14
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 22%
