Raleigh, N.C. – With proposed state budgets emerging, the public has turned against Republicans and a little toward Governor Bev Perdue and the Democrats since PPP last polled North Carolina a month ago.
In March, GOP legislators were viewed considerably more favorably than their Democratic counterparts, 38% favorable and 39% unfavorable, versus 34-46. Now those fortunes have flipped. 43% view both parties’ lawmakers negatively, but while only 34% view the Republicans positively, 40% do the Democrats.
If legislative elections were held today, voters statewide would split 45-45 between the two parties. Last month, 45% were behind the GOP, but only 41% backed the Democratic candidate in their district. The largest movement has come with independents, from 33-25 in the GOP’s favor to only 42-38. As they flipped control of both houses of the G.A. last November for the first time in over 100 years, Republican legislative candidates won the statewide vote by double digits, including by about 20 with independents.
The reason for the GOP’s decline? It could likely be their suggested cuts to education. 64% oppose an 8.8% cut to public schools, 58% are against a 10% cut to the community college system, and 44% balk at a 15.5% slash of the state’s support for the flagship 16-campus UNC system.
Voters across the partisan spectrum think these potential cuts are a bad idea. 56-75% of Democrats and 42-68% of independents oppose all three cuts, and 42% or 47% pluralities of Republicans oppose the cuts to public schools and community colleges. Only for the UNC system does the GOP turn slightly in favor of the cuts, 39-31.
“The more North Carolinians see of the new Republican legislative majority the less they like it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Their proposed cuts to education from early childhood all the way through college are proving to be very unpopular with the public.”
PPP surveyed 507 North Carolina voters from April 14th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you have more faith in Governor Perdue or
Legislative Republicans to lead the state?
Governor Perdue …………………………………….. 42%
Legislative Republicans ……………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you support or oppose an 8.8% cut in
funding for the public schools?
Support ………………………………………………….. 22%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you support or oppose a 15.5% cut in
funding for the UNC system?
Support ………………………………………………….. 29%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 Do you support or oppose a 10% cut in funding
for community colleges?
Support ………………………………………………….. 29%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q9 What best describes when you started living in
North Carolina?
Sometime between 2000 and now……………… 19%
1990s…………………………………………………….. 15%
1980s…………………………………………………….. 11%
1970s…………………………………………………….. 12%
1960s…………………………………………………….. 12%
1950s…………………………………………………….. 13%
1940s…………………………………………………….. 10%
1930s…………………………………………………….. 5%
Before 1930 ……………………………………………. 3%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q15
252………………………………………………………… 8%
336………………………………………………………… 26%
704………………………………………………………… 20%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 11%
919………………………………………………………… 21%
