Raleigh, N.C. – The marriage amendment which will be on the ballot during the May 8th North Carolina primary continues to lead for passage by 20 points, but if voters are informed of its negative consequences for the potential future passage of civil unions for gay couples, it would narrowly fail.
58% of likely primary voters say right now that they would vote “yes,” while 38% plan to vote “no.” But at the same time, 51% of these voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples’ relationships, either full marriage or civil unions. 34% of those folks are planning to vote for the amendment. Because of that, if informed that the amendment would ban both marriage and civil unions for gay couples, support goes down 17 points to 41%, and opposition rises 4% to 42%.
Part of the problem is that voters are not well informed about what the amendment does. A 34% plurality say they are not sure on that question. Almost as many (31%) do know that it would ban both gay marriage and civil unions, but then not many fewer (28%) think it would only ban marriage. 7% actually think it would legalize gay marriage. Those who think it bans solely marriage rights are voting 67-30 for it, so 8% of North Carolinians, while misinformed, are voting against the measure simply because they think it bans same-sex marriage alone. Of course, those who think a “yes” vote actually legalizes these unions are voting by the same margin for it.
Democrats narrowly favor the amendment from the get-go (48-47), and Republicans do overwhelmingly (76-20), but independents oppose it, 42-55. On the informed variation of the question, the shift is highest with Republicans—they still support it, but only 57-28. Democrats move to opposition (33-49), and independents move even more against it, to 27-56.
“The marriage amendment is leading by a wide margin right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But there’s a pretty dramatic shift in the numbers once voters become more aware about how far reaching it is. Education is the key for those hoping to defeat it over the next six weeks.”
PPP surveyed 1,191 likely primary voters on from March 23rd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you think you will vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary election in May, or will you
not vote in a primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 48%
Republican primary………………………………….. 44%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?
Would vote for it………………………………………. 58%
Would vote against it ……………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..26%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………25%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Do you think that a yes vote on Amendment 1
bans just gay marriage, bans both gay
marriage and civil unions, legalizes gay
marriage, or are you not sure?
Bans just gay marriage …………………………….. 28%
Bans both gay marriage and civil unions …….. 31%
Legalizes gay marriage…………………………….. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q5 If you knew that Amendment 1 banned both
gay marriage and civil unions, would you vote
yes or no?
Would vote yes ……………………………………….. 41%
Would vote no…………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 24%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
African-American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Q12
252………………………………………………………… 10%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 22%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 23%