Raleigh, N.C. – There is no question North Carolina’s Republican-led legislature hurt itself in the court of public opinion when it went into session after midnight last week. 65% of the state’s voters think holding votes then is inappropriate, and only 19% find it appropriate—feelings shared by voters of all partisan stripes. Because of that, the legislature’s own approval rating is down to 16%, with 54% disapproving. Democrats fall at 13-55, independents even worse at 14-60, and the GOP’s own base at only 22-50.
And voters seem to know that the Republican leadership in the General Assembly is responsible for their displeasure. Republican legislators’ approval rating has slid from 29% when PPP last surveyed the state a month ago, to 27% now, with 47% disapproving (48% in December). The minority Democrats are not popular either, but their approval spread is stuck at 36-41, 15 points better than the Republicans’.
Touching on some hot buttons, particularly in Southern politics, 92% of Tar Heels say they would be open to voting for a black candidate for public office. 4% say they would not consider it, and 4% are not sure. 53% would be open to a gay candidate, but 36% would not. 45% of voters, however, would not vote for a Muslim candidate, while 40% would. On all three questions, independents are the most open (95% for blacks, 67% for gays, and 52% for Muslims), better than Democrats (94%/58%/48%) or Republicans (88%/37%/19%).
Opinion has moved a hair against the marriage amendment as the date of the vote draws a month closer. Last month, 58% of usual primary voters said they would vote for it, and 32% against it. That is now 56/34. The outcome remains not only a matter of turnout but of education. 57% of these same primary voters are in favor of civil unions for gay couples, which the amendment would ban. That includes 64% of Democrats (who are now split 46-44 for the amendment) and 61% of independents (52/36). But it also includes 43% of Republicans, who overwhelmingly pledge for the amendment (74-17).
PPP surveyed 780 North Carolina voters from January 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic…………. .44%
Republican…………. .44%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q2 Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?
Would vote for it………………………………………. 56%
Would vote against it ……………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal …………………. .32%
Illegal ………………… .57%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q4 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should
be allowed to legally
marry…………………..25%
Gay couples should
be allowed to form
civil unions but not
marry…………………..32%
There should be no
legal recognition of
a gay couple’s
relationship ………….40%
Not sure …………….. . 3%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………….. .16%
Disapprove…………. .54%
Not sure …………….. .30%
Q6 Do you think it is appropriate or inappropriate
for the General Assembly to take votes on
legislation in the middle of the night?
Appropriate ………… .19%
Inappropriate………. .65%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q9 Would you ever support a black candidate for
public office, or not?
Open to voting for a black candidate…………… 92%
Are not …………………………………………………… 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q10 Would you ever support a gay candidate for
public office, or not?
Open to voting for a gay candidate …………….. 53%
Are not …………………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 Would you ever support a Muslim candidate for
public office, or not?
Open to voting for a Muslim candidate………… 40%
Are not …………………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Do you think employers should be allowed to
discriminate against employees based on
sexual orientation, or not?
They should be allowed to ………………………… 10%
They should not ………………………………………. 82%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q18
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
