Raleigh, N.C. – In PPP’s first look at the Washington Senate race since employing a likely voter screen, the picture looks almost the same as with registered voters before the August primary: incumbent Democrat Patty Murray at 49% and hanging onto a narrow lead over Republican victor and perennial candidate Dino Rossi.
Murray tops Rossi, 49-47. In a poll taken July 27th to August 1st, she was up, 49-46. While Murray has halved her previous 12-point deficit with independents, unaffiliateds now comprise a smaller portion of the electorate, at 29%, than in August (35%), with Republicans making up significantly more, at 34% versus 29%. Democrats are up to 37% from 36%. Both candidates have over 90% of their respective party bases behind them, though Murray is taking slightly more Republicans than Rossi is Democrats.
The projected electorate reports voting for Barack Obama over John McCain by only 7 points, 10 less than his actual margin of victory in 2008. The previous poll reflected a 10-point Obama lead. Were turnout like 2008’s, Murray would have a 53-43 edge.
14% of respondents claim to have already cast ballots in this vote-by-mail state. Murray is cushioning herself against a possible late Rossi surge, with early voters favoring her, 52-47.
Based entirely on a ten-point GOP edge with independents, Washington voters are split just slightly in favor of Republican control of the Senate, 47-46 over Democrats, a sentiment on which Rossi is not capitalizing. Voters are also split, 47-46 for Democrats, on the generic congressional ballot, with three Democratic and one GOP seat in play.
“This race is really very simple,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Washingtonians pretty much like Patty Murray and dislike Dino Rossi or vice versa. There’s no persuasion going on here. This race will be determined completely by who can get more of their supporters to actually take the time to vote.”
PPP surveyed 1,873 likely Washington voters from October 14th to 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Patty Murray …………………………………………… 49%
Dino Rossi ……………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Patty
Murray’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 47%
Disapprove………… 48%
Not sure ……………. 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dino Rossi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Would you rather Democrats or Republicans
held the majority in the next US Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 46%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Maria Cantwell’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 44%
Disapprove………… 41%
Not sure ……………. 15%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Christine Gregoire’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 40%
Disapprove………… 53%
Not sure ……………. 7%
Q8 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 Initiative Measure No. 1098 concerns
establishing a state income tax and reducing
other taxes. This measure would tax “adjusted
gross income” above $200,000 (individuals)
and $400,000 (joint-filers), reduce state
property tax levies, reduce certain business
and occupation taxes, and direct any increased
revenues to education and health. Should this
measure be enacted into law?
Yes………………………………………………………… 38%
No …………………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 14%
No …………………………………………………………. 86%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%