Raleigh, N.C. – Chris Murphy remains Democrats’ strongest bet to hold Joe Lieberman’s soon-vacated Senate seat, with newly announced candidate Chris Shays the GOP’s surest horse to take it.
Murphy leads Shays by a 43-39 margin; tops last year’s GOP nominee Linda McMahon, 50-43; and beats former Rep. Rob Simmons, 45-36. Former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz leads McMahon only 47-46, and trails Simmons, 42-41, and Shays, 48-37. State Rep. William Tong trails Simmons and McMahon by seven points and Shays by 19. Murphy and Bysiewicz have declined by four to 10 points against McMahon and Simmons since PPP last polled the race in March; Shays and Tong were not tested then.
Most of the shift is because the electorate is projecting as significantly more Republican than six months ago, with Democrats still at a +14 identification advantage. The candidates are holding almost identical levels of support within their own bases, but there have been some shifts toward the Republicans among the quarter of voters who identifiy as independents. Murphy led McMahon by six points in March, but now trails by five; he led Simmons by two, but now trails by two; he also trails Shays by nine with them. Bysiewicz lags with nonpartisans by 13 to 21 points, versus 3 to 14 in the previous poll.
Murphy’s competitiveness edge over Bysiewicz is not because he is better-known. In fact, slightly more (70%) are familiar with the former statewide officeholder than the congressman (63%). But Murphy is far more popular, with a 35-28 favorability rating, versus Bysiewicz’s 29-41. Voters are most familiar with McMahon, but she is also disliked, at 39-49. Shays is seen just slightly better than Murphy, at 37-28.
“Chris Shays could make this a pretty close race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His problem is that Democrats like him more than Republicans. That’s not a good formula for surviving a GOP primary with Linda McMahon.”
PPP surveyed 592 Connecticut voters from September 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susan Bysiewicz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda McMahon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Murphy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christopher Shays?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Simmons?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of William Tong?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Susan Bysiewicz and Republican
Linda McMahon, who would you vote for?
Susan Bysiewicz……………………………………… 47%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Susan Bysiewicz and Republican
Christopher Shays, who would you vote for?
Susan Bysiewicz……………………………………… 37%
Christopher Shays …………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Susan Bysiewicz and Republican
Rob Simmons, who would you vote for?
Susan Bysiewicz……………………………………… 41%
Rob Simmons …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Linda
McMahon, who would you vote for?
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 50%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican
Christopher Shays, who would you vote for?
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 43%
Christopher Shays …………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Rob
Simmons, who would you vote for?
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 45%
Rob Simmons …………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat William Tong and Republican Linda
McMahon, who would you vote for?
William Tong …………………………………………… 38%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat William Tong and Republican
Christopher Shays, who would you vote for?
William Tong …………………………………………… 27%
Christopher Shays …………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat William Tong and Republican Rob
Simmons, who would you vote for?
William Tong …………………………………………… 32%
Rob Simmons …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 26%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 11%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 20%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
