Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s newest poll of the Connecticut Senate race finds Democrat Chris Murphy expanding his lead to 6 points over Republican foe Linda McMahon, 48-42. Last month he led 48-44.
There’s no doubt Murphy’s image has taken a hit over the course of this campaign. Only 36% of voters say they have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. That’s down a net 15 points from July when he was at a 38/31 favorability spread. But voters aren’t warming up to McMahon either- she has a 42% favorability rating with 49% of voters seeing her unfavorably, numbers basically identical to 42/48 a couple months ago. McMahon’s done a good job of hitting Murphy but she hasn’t done anything to prop herself up and in a race between an unpopular Democratic candidate and an unpopular Republican candidate in a state like Connecticut the Democrat is going to win.
The key question we asked on this poll was probably whether people wanted Democrats or Republicans in control of the Senate, and by a 50/38 margin folks say they want the Democrats in charge. That reality should help Murphy along as well.
McMahon actually leads the race with independents, 51-38. Her problem is that 20% of Republicans are supporting Murphy over her, similar to what we found her losing to Richard Blumenthal in 2010. You simply can’t win as a Republican in Connecticut without holding your party base in line to a greater extent than that, but many GOP voters continue to find her unacceptable.
There’s a huge gender gap on the race with Murphy leading 54-35 with women, while McMahon has a 49-41 advantage with men. If there was any thought that McMahon might be able to over perform with women that seems not to be the case.
“Chris Murphy again looks like the clear favorite in the Connecticut Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The race might be closer than expected, but he’s still more than likely to emerge as the winner.”
PPP surveyed 801 likely Connecticut voters from September 24th to 26th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Murphy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda McMahon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Chris
Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Chris Murphy ………………………………………….. 48%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 50%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 53%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 29%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of World Wrestling Entertainment?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 9%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 26%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 7%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
