Raleigh, N.C.— Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s approval rating has declined
considerably since PPP last polled Alaska in February, but it does not appear,
at least at face value, to be because of her stance in favor of same-sex
marriage. Voters have actually moved
more in favor of that in the last five months.
47% approve and 41% disapprove of Murkowski’s job performance, down a net 15
points from the 54-33 spread she posted in the previous poll. The Republican-turned-independent is down
more than 20 points with Democrats (from 59-25 to 47-38) and Republicans (51-38
to 40-49) alike, but her numbers have held up with independents (52-33 vs.
51-36).
At the same time, more voters actually favor gay marriage than before,
though they are still slightly outnumbered by opponents. 45% think it should be allowed in Alaska,
while 48% favor the status quo. Those
are better numbers than in most red and even a lot of swing states, and it is
up a net five points from 43-51 in February.
That improvement comes among both Democrats and Republicans, and 49% of
independents remain in favor, versus 43% opposed. When the question is expanded to include
civil unions as an option, PPP finds what it does in even the deepest red
states: a majority in favor of allowing legal equality, here 69%, including 88%
of Democrats, 74% of independents, and even 50% of Republicans.
Sarah Palin (14%) comes a close second to national favorite Rand Paul (18%)
in an early 2016 presidential primary matchup, though she is followed on her
heels by Chris Christie (13%), Jeb Bush (11%), Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan (9%),
and Ted Cruz (8%).
Tuesday’s release showed Palin so unpopular in the state she used to govern
that she trails Sen. Mark Begich by 12 points.
If she were to be at the very top of the ticket in 2016, she would lag
Hillary Clinton by almost as much, 49-40.
Palin is the only candidate Clinton bests, however. She trails Ryan 47-46, Rubio 45-42, Paul
49-43, Bush 49-42, and Christie 46-38.
PPP surveyed 890
Alaska voters, including an oversample of 507 usual Republican primary voters,
between July 25th and 28th. The margin of error for the overall
survey is +/- 3.3%, and +/-4.4% for the GOP portion. This poll was not
authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you support or oppose Senate Bill 21,
which cut taxes on oil profits?
Support ………………………………………………….. 30%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa
Murkowski’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Alaska, or not?
It should be allowed …………………………………. 45%
It should not ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..42%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………27%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q5 Do you support or oppose the Voting Rights
Act?
Support ………………………………………………….. 38%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q6 Do you support or oppose the Supreme Court’s
decision to overturn parts of the Voting Rights
Act?
Support ………………………………………………….. 20%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 38%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Sarah
Palin, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q13 Do you think Sarah Palin should run for
President in 2016, or not?
She should run………………………………………… 18%
She should not………………………………………… 77%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q14 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles
Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York
Yankees, Oakland Athletics, San Francisco
Giants, and Seattle Mariners, which is your
favorite major league baseball team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 4%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 8%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 10%
Angels……………………………………………………. 2%
Dodgers …………………………………………………. 3%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 9%
A’s…………………………………………………………. 1%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 3%
Mariners…………………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite team …… 39%
Q15 Given the choices of the Dallas Cowboys,
Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, New
York Giants, Oakland Raiders, San Diego
Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle
Seahawks, which is you favorite professional
football team?
Cowboys………………………………………………… 9%
Broncos………………………………………………….. 10%
Packers………………………………………………….. 21%
Giants ……………………………………………………. 2%
Raiders ………………………………………………….. 3%
Chargers………………………………………………… 2%
49ers……………………………………………………… 10%
Seahawks ………………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite team …… 22%
Q16 Can you see Russia from your house, or not?
Can ……………………………………………………….. 12%
Cannot …………………………………………………… 87%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 20%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 48%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
Other……………………………………………………… 17%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and George
Zimmerman, who would you most like to see
as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 11%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 13%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 8%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 14%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 18%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 9%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
George Zimmerman…………………………………. 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q2 If Sarah Palin and George Zimmerman were
not candidates for President, who would you
most like to see as the GOP candidate for
President in 2016, given the choices of Jeb
Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul,
Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 15%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 14%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 9%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 20%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 10%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 14%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
