Raleigh, N.C. – Mississippi Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant is certainly the favorite to get his party’s nomination to succeed Haley Barbour at the helm of the state. As last week’s PPP release showed, Bryant would also be a shoo-in come November. Bryant has almost two-thirds (63%) of Republican primary voters’ support, with only one other candidate, businessman Dave Dennis, in double digits (14%). Retired General Hudson Holliday gets a mere 2%, with perennial candidate James Broadwater at only 1% and businessman Ron Williams with almost no support. 20% are undecided, but unless a seismic shift occurs, that will not impact Bryant’s chances in the primary only four months away.
If Barbour makes a bid for the White House, he would have home-state support. His 37% in an eight-candidate field puts him at almost a 2:1 advantage over the next contender, neighboring Arkansas’ Mike Huckabee, who earns 19%. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin each get 10%, with Mitt Romney back at 6%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Tim Pawlenty at 3%, and Ron Paul at 2%, with 9% undecided or preferring someone else.
Without Barbour in the race, Huckabee gets most of Barbour’s supporters, jumping up to 35%, followed by Palin’s 20%, Gingrich’s 18%, and Romney still way behind at 8%, and the others pretty much running in place. Romney has typically done poorly in Southern-state primary matchups in recent PPP polls, but this is his worst performance yet.
46% of these hardcore Republican voters believe interracial marriage should be illegal, while 40% think it should be legal. With Barbour included, Huckabee gets more support (22%) from the former than the latter (15%), as does Palin (13-6). The support for Bachmann (10-2), Gingrich (13-8), and Pawlenty (4-1) works the opposite way.
Voters are very satisfied with their junior Senator Roger Wicker. 72% see his views as being “about right.” But as is the case in many states, PPP finds that if given a choice between even the most strident right-winger and a generic “more conservative challenger” in the primary, voters would prefer or nearly favor the latter. Here, voters are split, 40-39 in favor of Wicker. His bid for renomination will likely be uncontested, but this is an interesting gauge of voters’ mood.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Mississippi Republican primary voters from March 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Haley Barbour’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 85%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Bryant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Dennis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hudson Holliday?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q9 The Republican candidates for Governor are
James Broadwater, Phil Bryant, Dave Dennis,
Hudson Holliday, and Ron Williams. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
James Broadwater…………………………………… 1%
Phil Bryant ……………………………………………… 63%
Dave Dennis …………………………………………… 14%
Hudson Holliday………………………………………. 2%
Ron Williams…………………………………………… 0%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 20%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour,
Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin,
Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 37%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 2%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 6%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q11 If Haley Barbour didn’t run for President and
the candidates next year were just Michele
Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 35%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 8%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q12 Do you think Roger Wicker is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 9%
Too conservative……………………………………… 4%
About right ……………………………………………… 72%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q13 If the Republican primary for Senate next year
was between Roger Wicker and a more
conservative challenger, who would you vote
for?
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 40%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q14 Do you think interracial marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 40%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
