Raleigh, N.C. – Democrats in North Carolina are headed for a very tough year at the polls right now, but it’s an outcome that can be avoided if the party’s voters are snapped out of their complacency between now and November.
PPP’s newest look at the generic legislative ballot finds voters in the state favoring Republican candidates by a 49-41 margin. That’s a margin that, if it holds, would almost definitely give the GOP control of the Legislature. Independents are planning to vote Republican by a remarkable 52-19 margin. GOP voters are also more unified with 92% of them committed to voting for their party’s candidates while only 81% of Democrats say the same of theirs.
The interesting thing about the numbers is that people who voted Democratic in 2008 are not abandoning the party. Only 6% of Barack Obama voters are planning to choose a Republican this year, equal to the 6% of John McCain supporters who are leaning toward the Democrats. But the folks planning to vote in North Carolina this fall supported McCain by a 9 point margin, when in actuality Obama won the state by a small margin. Republicans are much more interested in coming out to the polls again this year and that’s driving the GOP advantage.
“Democratic voters in North Carolina need a wakeup call,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Republicans are motivated to vote and if the Democrats stay at home the change they voted for in 2008 is going to fall by the wayside very quickly.”
Among respondents who say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting this year the Republican margin expands even further to 56-37. Democrats have the lead with voters who are ‘somewhat’ or ‘not’ excited about voting. Of course an unexcited vote counts the same as an excited one if the party can still get those folks out to the polls.
PPP surveyed 724 North Carolina voters from August 27th to 29th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 How excited are you about casting your vote in
the general election this fall?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 57%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 23%
Not very excited………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 1%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%
Q6 Would you describe the community you live in
as urban, suburban, rural, or a small town?
Urban…………………………………………………….. 15%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 27%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 31%
Small Town …………………………………………….. 27%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If older than
65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Q11
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 24%
