Raleigh, N.C. – While Democrats can no longer run term limited Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer in the governor’s race, they don’t have to give up the governorship in this red leaning state. Democrats have a strong chance at retaining the seat if either Lieutenant Governor John Bohlinger or Attorney General Steve Bullock wins the nomination.
Governor Brian Schweitzer remains quite popular with 52% of Montana voters approving and 38% disapproving. His numbers are down a bit from his 55-33 rating in November. Schweitzer has faced a significant decline among independents who now approve only 47-42 (58-29 in November). Nevertheless, he retains strength by locking in Democrats 88-9 and garnering a fair amount of Republican support 26-58. Voters’ positive impressions of the Schweitzer administration are doubtless an aid to other Democrats who wish to succeed Schweitzer.
Bohlinger and Bullock both lead most potential Republican candidates, but are in a dead heat with former Congressman Rick Hill. Bohlinger leads State Senator Jeff Essmann 40-33, former gubernatorial candidate Ken Miller 39-33, and trails Hill 39-40. Bullock receives similar support and leads Essmann 38-33, Miller 38-34, and loses to Hill 37-39 (31-41 in November). Democratic State Senator Dave Wanzenried does not fare as well, losing to Essmann 31-33, Miller 30-35, and Hill 30-40.
All of the candidates are relatively unknown, with only Bohlinger recognized by over 50% of voters. Of those who venture an opinion, Bohlinger and Bullock are popular with favorability ratings of 31-21 and 28-18 respectively. None of the other candidates even make it into positive territory. Favorability is 20-25 for Hill, 11-17 for Wanzenried, 8-16 for Miller, and a lowly 6-22 for Essman. That Hill ties considerably more popular Bohlinger and Bullock shows the strength of the GOP in Montana. If Democrats are to win the governorship once again, they will need a strong candidate.
PPP surveyed 819 Montana voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Schweitzer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Bohlinger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Bullock?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Essmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Wanzenried?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Bohlinger and Republican Jeff
Essmann, who would you vote for?
John Bohlinger………………………………………… 40%
Jeff Essmann………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Bohlinger and Republican Rick
Hill, who would you vote for?
John Bohlinger………………………………………… 39%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat John Bohlinger and Republican Ken
Miller, who would you vote for?
John Bohlinger………………………………………… 39%
Ken Miller……………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Jeff
Essmann, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 38%
Jeff Essmann………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Rick
Hill, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 37%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Ken
Miller, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 38%
Ken Miller……………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Dave Wanzenried and Republican
Jeff Essmann, who would you vote for?
Dave Wanzenried ……………………………………. 31%
Jeff Essmann………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 36%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Dave Wanzenried and Republican
Rick Hill, who would you vote for?
Dave Wanzenried …………………………………… 30%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Dave Wanzenried and Republican
Ken Miller, who would you vote for?
Dave Wanzenried ……………………………………. 30%
Ken Miller……………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 35%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%