Raleigh, N.C. – If next year’s presidential election were held today, American voters say they would be just as likely to vote for President Obama’s Republican opponent as cast a ballot for him. The national popular vote ties the two at 47%. Further, a specifically moderate Republican would topple the president, 46-44. But if the GOP nominates someone endorsed by the Tea Party, Obama would prevail, 49-45. This narrative of electability versus right wing purity will drive the GOP primary debate later this year. But the candidates are so weak right now that only one of the seven named challengers would come even as close as an idealized Tea Partier would. Even ex-president George W. Bush, in a fantasy matchup, outperforms most of the real field.
Obama has slipped a little in the last month, but still leads all of his potential opponents by at least three points. He tops Mike Huckabee, 47-44; Mitt Romney, 46-41; Newt Gingrich, 49-40; and Sarah Palin, 52-40. He also beats two offbeat dark horses: Ron Paul, 48-39, and Donald Trump, 48-34. The generic moderate Republican would win independents, 47-40, and the generic Republican nominee would essentially tie, 44-45, but the named candidates trail with these voters by between five and 24 points.
PPP also tested two Bushes against the president. Amazingly, despite the political dynamics of change that brought Obama into office in 2008 and Jeb’s supposedly more mainstream popularity, the brothers have equal -8 favorabilty margins, and the ex-president would actually run closer to Obama if he were allowed to run for a third term. George would lag only 44-48, but Jeb would trail by a margin even larger than Palin would, 36-50.
Some in the GOP are clamoring for Jeb to save them from a weak field, but despite some image rehabilitation in the last few years, he would be running against a still fairly strong anti-Bush headwind. 44% of voters, including half of independents, say they would definitely never vote for a Bush family member for President again. 39% would at least consider it, but only 14% would be firmly behind a dynasty.
“All of the actual Republican candidates poll weaker than the generic ones,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That shows Barack Obama is still quite vulnerable, but polling well because of the lack of candidate quality in the GOP field. If that changes we’re going to have a much closer race on our hands.”
PPP surveyed 600 registered American voters from February 11th to 14th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Generally speaking if the election was today
would you vote for Barack Obama or his
Republican opponent?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 If the choices for president next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and a conservative
Republican candidate endorsed by the Tea
Party, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Conservative Tea Party Republican……………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 If the choices for president next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and a moderate
Republican candidate, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Moderate Republican……………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q15 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John McCain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q18 If someone from the Bush family ran for
President again in the future, would you
definitely vote for them, consider voting for
them, or definitely not vote for them?
Would definitely vote for them……………………. 14%
Would consider voting for them …………………. 39%
Would definitely not vote for them………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George W. Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q21 If George W. Bush was allowed to seek
another term as President next year and the
candidates were him and Barack Obama, who
would you vote for?
George W. Bush ……………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q22 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q23 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 9%
Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q26 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q27 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
