Raleigh, N.C. – As yesterday’s release showed, President Obama looks strong enough to win Colorado regardless of the name or ideology of the GOP’s headliner next year, but new results from PPP show that a candidate with a less conservative image would certainly have a better shot than one who embraces the Tea Party. A generic Tea-Party Republican would fall to Obama in Colorado by a 53-41 margin, a bigger win for the president than the overall 51-44 he posts against any old generic Republican—but still closer than his leads over the two most conservative named candidates, Sarah Palin (19 points) and Newt Gingrich (14).
A moderate Republican, however, would pull the president under 50%, lagging only 48-42, very similar to the generic ballot test and to moderate Mitt Romney’s six-point deficit. This matchup would send 14% of independents who were in Obama’s column against a Tea Partier to the undecided category, giving him only a 43-33 lead over the GOP’s more moderate nominee. But a centrist Republican would also cause slightly more Democrats to cross the aisle, and a few more Republicans to stay true to their party.
When asked if the GOP should nominate a moderate or conservative, independents favor the former by a 48-33 margin, but two-thirds of Republicans want a conservative, to only a quarter who prefer someone toward the center.
“It’s clear that if Republicans nominate someone as stridently right-wing as Sarah Palin, they will face disaster at the ballot box next November,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Their best shot is with a mainstream moderate who can still hold together the base—a daunting challenge.”
Two-fifths of Coloradans now favor full marriage equality for same-sex couples, and a further third support civil unions. Only a quarter oppose any legal recognition for gay relationships. 63% of Democrats and a 38% plurality of independents are for gay marriage. Even 38% of the GOP supports civil unions; 45% oppose unions and marriage.
More Coloradans (38%) are in favor of making the health care reform bill even stronger than the 35% who favor full repeal. That includes a 40-27 breakdown with independents.
PPP surveyed 517 Colorado voters from February 4th to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If the choices for president next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and a conservative
Republican candidate endorsed by the Tea
Party, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Conservative Tea Party Republican……………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 If the choices for president next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and a moderate
Republican candidate, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Moderate Republican……………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Would you rather Republicans next year
nominated a moderate candidate or a
conservative one?
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the new Republican majority in the US
House?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Who do you trust more to run the country:
President Obama or Congressional
Republicans?
President Obama…………………………………….. 51%
Congressional Republicans ………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you think Barack Obama is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 43%
Too conservative……………………………………… 9%
About right ……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q7 Do you think the Republican Party is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 18%
Too conservative……………………………………… 47%
About right ……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..40%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not legally marry ……………………….32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q9 What would you like to see the new Congress
do with the health care reform bill that was
passed last year: keep the bill but make it
stronger, keep the bill exactly in its current
form, repeal certain parts of the bill, or repeal
the bill entirely?
Keep the bill, make it stronger …………………… 38%
Keep exactly in its current form………………….. 5%
Repeal certain parts…………………………………. 19%
Repeal entirely………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 25%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
