Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s Wednesday release revealed a potentially tight 2012 re-election battle for freshman Senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri, but against two of the same opponents, first-term Governor Jay Nixon is in much better shape. Nixon tops Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, 47-39, and former state treasurer Sarah Steelman, 46-35. McCaskill trailed Kinder by two and beat Steelman by only one.
The difference owes to the two figures’ relative popularity. Nixon has a 44-30 approval rating, tying him with Alaska’s recently re-elected Sean Parnell and Connecticut’s outgoing Jodi Rell as the sixth most popular governor PPP has measured in 2010. McCaskill posts only a 43-44, putting her somewhere in the middle of the pack of senators. Nixon is actually relatively unpopular in his own party, showing a weak 54-26 to McCaskill’s 77-10, but Nixon is far less polarizing. Whereas McCaskill has almost reverse numbers with Republicans as with Democrats, Nixon breaks even among the GOP at 34-37. 43% of independents approve of each, but only 23% disapprove of Nixon’s performance, versus 40% for McCaskill.
Thus, in the horse races, Nixon does better than McCaskill across the aisle, pulling 14 or 15% of Republicans to McCaskill’s 7 or 8%, and beating Kinder by 10 and Steelman by 17 with independents, versus McCaskill’s respective seven-point deficit and three-point lead. Despite Nixon’s base’s beef with his job performance, they return home when it comes time to vote. Both candidates have the Democratic base almost unanimously locked up.
Unfortunately for Nixon, Steelman announced for Senate while this poll was in the field, and will face McCaskill if she survives the primary, a feat she could not accomplish when she ran for governor in 2008.
“Jay Nixon has built a strong bipartisan brand in a swing state that has been a little tough for Democrats of late, and right now, it looks like he will start out in a solid position on his way to re-election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 515 Missouri voters from November 29th to December 1st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Kinder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor in 2012 were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Peter
Kinder, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 47%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor in 2012 were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Sarah
Steelman, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 46%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 34%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
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