Polls

MO GOP wants Talent for Sen., Huck and Palin for pres.

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results

Senate_Primary_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – Former Senator Jim Talent was narrowly defeated by Claire McCaskill in 2006, and his party’s voters overwhelmingly prefer that he take McCaskill on again than go with someone new.  The race for President is much closer, with adjacent Arkansas’ Mike Huckabee barely topping Sarah Palin.

Talent is preferred by 53% when pitted against announced candidate Sarah Steelman, who gets 17%, and Peter Kinder, who has half of Talent’s support, at 26%.  Only 4% are not sure.  Last Wednesday’s release showed both Talent and Kinder leading McCaskill by two points and the incumbent beating Steelman by one, in what should be yet another in a string of very evenly matched races for this seat.

62% of her own party’s most fervent voters still have no expressed opinion of Steelman, the former state treasurer, nor do 57% know enough about Lieutenant Governor Kinder, so both have plenty of time in about a year and a half to raise their profiles.  Those who have heard of the two are overwhelmingly positive, 34-9 for Kinder and 25-13 for Steelman.

President_Primary_Graph The general election for president may not be quite as close, depending on the nominee, but the early race for the chance at the nomination is.  Huckabee gets 27% to Palin’s 25%, a statistical tie, with the race for third place also close—Newt Gingrich at 15% and Mitt Romney at 14%.  As usual, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, and Mitch Daniels receive minimal support in a battle of name recognition. 

“Sarah Steelman has a lot of work to do with Republican voters over the next year and a half but this initial low level of support shouldn’t be too much of a concern for her,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “If there’s one thing we saw over and over this year it was that the numbers in primary contests can move awfully quick.”

PPP surveyed 400 usual Missouri Republican primary voters from November 29th to December 1st.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 76%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Kinder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Talent?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q8 Between Peter Kinder, Sarah Steelman, and
Jim Talent who would you most like to see as
the Republican Senate candidate in 2012?
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 26%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 17%
Jim Talent ………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q9 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 1%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 27%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 25%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 1%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Conservative…………………………………………… 77%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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