Raleigh, N.C. – In the formative contests to take on the embattled Claire McCaskill and the formidable Jay Nixon, Republican voters are split pretty evenly between the best-known of the prospective candidates, and so many are still unsurprisingly undecided that the races could go either way in the next year.
In a five-candidate field for Senate, Sarah Steelman edges Todd Akin, 27-23, with another 23% undecided. Blaine Luetkemeyer is not far behind at 18%, with Ed Martin way back at 6%, and John Brunner at 4%. The standings fall entirely along name-recognition lines. 48% have an opinion on Steelman, 37% of Akin, 32% of Luetkemeyer, 25% of Martin, and only 18% of Brunner. Luetkemeyer actually leads 26-22-20 over Steelman and Akin with moderates, but they comprise only 18% of the electorate. The 40% very conservative plurality gives Steelman a 29-19-18 edge over the others.
If Luetkemeyer chooses to not jump into the race, Akin earns the bulk of his support, taking a narrow 29-28 lead over Steelman, with the others still back in single digits and 28% undecided. With the 37% who consider themselves somewhat conservative, Akin’s advantage expands from 29-26 to 33-25. With the most conservative, Steelman’s edge shrinks to only 32-28, and those in the middle pick Akin, 26-23.
If Matt Blunt chooses to seek another term in his old office, he would be the early favorite based on voters’ familiarity with him. He grabs 35% of voters’ preference, with Peter Kinder and Kenny Hulshof deadlocked at 22% and 20% undecided. 73% have an opinion of Blunt, but only 49% of Kinder and 43% of Hulshof.
Donald Trump’s emergence has taken a huge hit on Newt Gingrich’s and Sarah Palin’s support. Mike Huckabee (28%) and Mitt Romney (13%) are treading water since January, but Trump’s 12% has knocked Gingrich from 19% to 10% and Palin from 14% to 8%, with Michele Bachmann at 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.
PPP surveyed 400 Missouri Republican primary voters from April 28th to May 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Blunt?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kenny Hulshof?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Peter Kinder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Brunner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Blaine Luetkemeyer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Martin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q14 Given the choices of Todd Akin, John Brunner,
Blaine Luetkemeyer, Ed Martin, and Sarah
Steelman who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for Senate next
year?
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 23%
John Brunner ………………………………………….. 4%
Blaine Luetkemeyer …………………………………. 18%
Ed Martin ……………………………………………….. 6%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 27%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 23%
Q15 If the choices were just Todd Akin, John
Brunner, Ed Martin, and Sarah Steelman who
would you most like to see as the Republican
candidate for Senate next year?
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 29%
John Brunner ………………………………………….. 6%
Ed Martin ……………………………………………….. 9%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 28%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 28%
Q16 Given the choices of Matt Blunt, Kenny
Hulshof, and Peter Kinder who would you most
like to see as the Republican nominee for
Governor next year?
Matt Blunt……………………………………………….. 35%
Kenny Hulshof ………………………………………… 22%
Peter Kinder……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 20%
Q17 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 28%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 8%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 12%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q18 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 42%
No …………………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
