Raleigh, N.C. – The Missouri Senate race looks like a sheer toss up, in both the primary and general elections.
The Republican primary has always looked like a two way toss up between Todd Akin and Sarah Steelman, but now John Brunner deserves equal billing in that mix as well. All three candidates are within 5 points of each other with Steelman at 28%, Brunner at 25%, and Akin at 23%. Compared to PPP’s last poll in late January Brunner is up 7 points, Steelman is down 4, and Akin has remained right in place.
When the field for this race was first developing it looked like Steelman might play the role of a Tea Party candidate, but instead Brunner has turned out to be the top choice of ‘very conservative’ voters with 33% to 26% for Akin and just 20% for Steelman. Steelman’s strength is coming more from voters in the GOP center, as she leads Brunner by 21 points with moderates and by 8 with those identifying as only ‘somewhat conservative.’
The arc of this race is pretty unmistakable- Brunner’s the only candidate who’s really gained much support over the last year with Akin and Steelman remaining largely stagnant.
There’s no more clarity for the general election than there is for the primary. Claire McCaskill is basically tied with all three of her competitors, leading Brunner 46-44, dead even with Steelman at 44, and down 45-44 to Akin.
McCaskill’s approval spread is 40/50, numbers that don’t usually get a Senator reelected. But she’s benefiting from the current anonymity of the GOP field. Only 56% of voters are familiar with Steelman and that goes down to 43% for Brunner and 42% for Akin.
“Claire McCaskill’s running even with her GOP opponents but her approval numbers are troubling,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Once Republicans are unified around their nominee she could find herself as the underdog.”
PPP surveyed 602 Missouri voters between May 24th and 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .40%
Disapprove…………. .50%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Brunner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Todd Akin, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 44%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
John Brunner, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 46%
John Brunner ………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Sarah Steelman, who would you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 44%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Brunner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Steelman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q4 The major Republican candidates for Senate
are Todd Akin, John Brunner, and Sarah
Steelman. If the primary was today, who would
you vote for?
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 23%
John Brunner ………………………………………….. 25%
Sarah Steelman ………………………………………. 28%
Another candidate……………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 1%
Republican……………………………………………… 71%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
