Polls

Missouri Senate Race Tightening

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-resultsRaleigh, N.C. – Public Policy Polling’s newest survey of the Missouri Senate race, conducted on behalf of the Robin Carnahan campaign, finds that the race is moving in her direction and remains very competitive with two weeks to go until the election.

Roy Blunt leads Carnahan 46-41, with Constitution Party candidate Jerry Beck and Libertarian Jonathan Dine each pulling 3% and 7% of voters still undecided.  PPP’s last Missouri survey, in early August, found Blunt leading by a 45-38 margin.

The tightening in the race is a reflection of something PPP is seeing in contests all over the country: Democratic interest in the election is picking up as the big day comes closer.  In August only 33% of Missourians saying they were likely to vote in November were Democrats to 38% who were Republicans.  Now that breakdown is 36% Democrats and 35% Republicans.

The other factor causing the race to tighten is that Blunt is seeing his support from Democratic voters decline while Carnahan’s crossover support from Republicans is moving slightly up.  In the August survey Blunt was winning 11% of Democrats.  That’s been reduced now to 8%.  Meanwhile Carnahan is now getting 6% of Republicans, up from 4% on the previous poll.  Blunt’s overall lead persists thanks to a 46-31 advantage with independents.

“These numbers show that some folks have been too quick to write off Missouri Senate as a competitive race,” said Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling.  “Roy Blunt’s lead is within the margin of error and the numbers are trending in Robin Carnahan’s direction.  If Democratic interest continues to tick up as election day moves closer there could be a surprising result on November 2nd.”

PPP surveyed 646 likely voters on October 17th and 18th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Tom Jensen at 919-744-6312

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Republican
Roy Blunt, Democrat Robin Carnahan,
Constitution Party candidate Jerry Beck, and
Libertarian Jonathan Dine. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Roy Blunt ……………. 46%
Robin Carnahan…… 41%
Jerry Beck…………… 3%
Jonathan Dine……… 3%
Undecided…………… 7%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roy Blunt?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Robin Carnahan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 53%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 2%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent or
another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%

Q7 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If older than
65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

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