Raleigh, N.C. – Though it was the closest state in the country, Missouri lost its bellwether status in 2008, choosing John McCain over Barack Obama. The president has to hope he has truly broken the trend and that 2008 was not a blip on the radar. The state has moved a little further right in the last three years, and Obama would probably lose if the election were today, and by a slightly larger margin than he did in 2008.
Obama’s standing is a mirror image—trailing Mitt Romney, 47-43, but leading Michele Bachmann by that same margin, and lagging Rick Perry, 47-45, while beating Newt Gingrich by that amount. The two parties are pretty identically united behind their respective candidates, so the 30% of the electorate that claims neither label makes the difference, favoring Obama by six over Perry but Romney by three over Obama. The president leads by double digits against the other two.
Obama has the same approval rating—43% approving and 53% disapproving—as when PPP last polled the state in early May, and the same as in the next closest 2008 state, North Carolina, which Obama barely won, and where he now ties or just leads his opponents. But even though he does better with Missouri Democrats and independents than their Tar Heel counterparts, he does worse overall because there are fewer Democrats and African Americans here than there.
Poll respondents report having voted for McCain by three points, when the real result was essentially a tie. That means the turnout environment today is weaker for Obama, as it is in most states, a large part of the reason he has lost ground in states around the country.
“Missouri is still within reach for Barack Obama in 2012,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But given that it’s not part of the path to 270 electoral votes and that the overall race is probably going to be closer than in 2008 he may not have the time and resources to really try to win the state the way he did last time.”
PPP surveyed 632 Missouri voters from September 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
